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Hydrogen Strategy for Canada: Progress Report

Measuring progress and realizing potential

April 2024


The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada Progress Report (the “Progress Report”) provides the perspectives of numerous stakeholders from across governments, non-governmental organizations and academia. While the Government of Canada led the development of the report and consulted broadly, the Progress Report represents a summarized viewpoint, and some parts may not be unanimously endorsed by all the participating organizations and individuals. The Progress Report is based on the best available information at the time it was compiled, and it is important to acknowledge that the low-carbon hydrogen economy continues to evolve at a rapid dace domestically and internationally.

Industry projects highlighted in the Progress Report are done in this manner to provide transparency and awareness to readers. Their mentions do not preclude any governmental or regulatory approval processes nor should be interpreted as indicating governmental support or approval in any such processes.

Table of contents

Foreword to the Progress Report

In 2020, Canada issued a call to action to seize the hydrogen opportunity for the benefit of Canada and Canadians. The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada laid out a framework that focuses low-carbon hydrogen as a tool to achieve our goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, while creating jobs, growing our economy, expanding exports and protecting our environment.

Across Canada, interest in low-carbon hydrogen is booming. Approximately 80 low-carbon hydrogen production projects have been announced, representing an expression of interest of over $100 billion in potential investment dedicated to building out this clean energy opportunity.

Pilot projects are underway, showcasing Canadian ingenuity and demonstrating how hydrogen can help fuel our trucks, buses, and trains, help decarbonize our industries, or help heat our homes and businesses.

Hydrogen hubs are forming, such as in Edmonton, Vancouver and Southern Ontario, to match low-carbon hydrogen supply with demand.

We are advancing commitments to provide competitive and reliable low-carbon hydrogen to advance the energy security imperative with our friends and allies and compete as a major exporter of hydrogen, its derivatives, and hydrogen technologies, in the growing global market. Potential buyers in Europe and Asia have shown strong interest in establishing partnerships with Canadian export producers, bringing opportunities for sustainable clean job creation in Atlantic and Western Canada and global emissions reductions.

And provinces are showing tremendous leadership, complementing Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy with their own provincial strategies, and leading the development of provincial funding programs, policies and supportive measures.

Since 2020, the developments show that low-carbon hydrogen can play a key supporting role alongside electrification to decarbonize our economy, and an essential role in meeting global energy needs in the context of energy security, the energy transition and the broader climate imperative.

This Progress Report provides an update of Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy. It is the product of 3 years of engagement and analysis involving over 1,000 of Canada’s leading experts and stakeholders, all working in collaboration to achieve the hydrogen opportunity. It highlights major developments across the hydrogen value chain and reports on progress in implementing the recommendations made in the Hydrogen Strategy. It also features projections of hydrogen’s potential role in meeting Canada’s climate objectives and provides a roadmap of Canada’s next steps and priorities in the coming years.

Make no mistake, many challenges remain. This Progress Report shows that great progress can be made when we all work together towards a common vision. It is now time to continue the journey and realize the enormous potential of nature’s smallest molecule to help build a thriving, sustainable, made-in-Canada clean economy—for ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren.

The Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson

Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Canada

1. Hydrogen Strategy for Canada: Progress and evolving context

The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada was developed through extensive engagement and represents a collective view of a Canada-wide hydrogen roadmap, which assessed domestic market and export opportunities for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies. This strategy proposed a vision for the future role of hydrogen in Canada and the steps required to achieve that vision. It also provided an overview of hydrogen fundamentals, including production pathways, end uses and potential benefits.

Canada committed to publishing a Progress Report of the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada to take stock of low-carbon hydrogen developments across Canadian provinces and territories, including producers and users of hydrogen.

For the past 3 years, the Government of Canada, under the leadership of Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), has been working with provinces and territories, Indigenous organizations, industry, academia, and non-governmental organizations to implement the recommendations of the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada and inform the development of this Progress Report. This report leverages input from over 1,000 participating companies, organizations and individuals sourced through a variety of different forums, bilateral discussions and complementary studies. It also responds to the recommendations of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development’s 2022 Audit of the Hydrogen Strategy. 

Like the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada, the Progress Report is a strategic directional document based on the best available information at this time. Adjustments will be made as technology, research, codes and standards, pilot projects, the international hydrogen landscape and policy evolve.

1.1 Status of the Canadian hydrogen industry

The Canadian hydrogen and fuel cell sector is recognized as a global leader for pioneering new technologies and expertise. Increasing demand for clean energy products and solutions domestically and worldwide is generating opportunities and investments in a broad range of applications, including industrial processes, feedstock production, transport, electricity storage and building heat. In the few years since the strategy was released, there has been a surge in hydrogen research, project announcements, policies and international agreements.

Canadian low-carbon hydrogen industry developments and status at-a-glance


Deployed low-carbon H2 production capacity

3,450 tonnes-H2 per year

80 projects

announced, under consideration or under developmentFootnote 1

Announced or under development low-carbon H2 production capacityFootnote 2

5+ Mt H2 per year

Total announced project investment


Route to market

12 international agreements

6 provincial strategies

23 announced export projects

8 hubs formed or forming

End-use applications


7 truck and bus

4 train trials underway

Codes and standards

22 developed

Hydrogen refuelling stations

8 operating

21 announced

Currently serviced by H2 - Natural gas blends

3,600 Ontario households

2,100 Alberta customers

Cross-cutting areas

Clean Hydrogen ITC to provide

$17.7B for clean H2 productionFootnote 3

Indigenous involvement

13 project partnerships

Number of jobs (2021)Footnote 4

4,291 (full-time equivalent)

Revenues of Canadian H2 sector companies (2021)Footnote 5


Summary map: Hydrogen developments in Canada since 2020 – Production, end-use, hubs and strategies

Text version

Map of Canada showing hydrogen developments since 2020, across the hydrogen value chain. Provinces are shaded based on status of Provincial strategy development: BC, AB, ON, QC, NB, and NS have published strategies; MB, and NL have strategies under development; SK, PEI, and the territories have no strategies. The map has icons showing where hydrogen production and end-use projects are located. Production projects are divided by size and by production type (electrolysis compared to natural gas reforming with carbon capture), and end-use icons include showing projects in truck/bus/fleets, ports, rail, vehicle refueling, blending, heavy industry, or electricity generation. Clusters of activity across the value chains can be found in BC (Vancouver area, Prince George area); AB (Edmonton, Calgary, and Alberta industrial heartland); Ontario (Toronto, Sarnia, and Bruce County); QC (Montreal to Quebec City); and along some of the coasts of NB, NS, and NL.

Figure 1: Map of hydrogen developments in Canada since 2020, across the hydrogen value chain.

1.2 Major policy and regulatory updates

Low-carbon hydrogen continues to be Canada’s goal. Canada has brought forward a number of measures since 2020 to promote the production and use of low-carbon hydrogen. While some measures directly apply to low-carbon hydrogen projects, others have a broader reach but can be accessed by participants across the low-carbon hydrogen value chain.

Government of Canada initiatives

Dedicated support

In the 2022 Fall Economic Statement, the federal government announced the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit (CHITC), a refundable investment tax credit for investments made in clean hydrogen production based on the life cycle carbon intensity of hydrogen. This critical investment in a growing source of energy will help create good middle-class careers, ensure that Canadian companies can remain globally competitive and encourage the use of clean energy to reduce pollution.

The credit will apply to both electrolysis projects and natural gas reforming projects if emissions are abated with carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). Going forward, Canada will continue to review eligibility for other production pathways.

The levels of support will vary from 15% to 40% of eligible project costs, depending on the life cycle emissions of the hydrogen produced. Certain labour conditions would have to be met for proponents to access their credit in full. The CHITC also extends to equipment for converting clean hydrogen to ammonia, at a credit rate of 15%. The credit applies as of March 28, 2023, and will be phased out by 2035. Canada is targeting to introduce CHITC legislation in Parliament in early 2024. The CHITC is expected to provide $17.7 billion in tax incentive support to the sector by 2035 (based on expected use of the credit and does not represent a funding envelope or target).

In addition to the CHITC, several related tax credits were announced in Budget 2023 that could also support reductions in the initial capital cost of low-carbon hydrogen projects:

The Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit or the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit

  • Offers a credit of up to 30% on electricity generation systems, such as wind or solar
  • With large amounts of electricity required for electrolysis-based hydrogen production, these tax credits could provide significant support
  • Available as of March 28, 2023

The Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit

  • Available as of January 1, 2024
  • Offers a credit of up to 30% for new machinery to manufacture technologies, including manufacturing of electrolysers, which can lower the costs of hydrogen project equipment manufactured in Canada

The Investment Tax Credit for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage

  • Originally announced in August 2022 and is available as of January 1, 2022
  • Offers a 37.5% to 60% credit on the equipment necessary to capture, transport and store carbon emissions, benefitting facilities producing hydrogen from natural gas

Broader support accessible to the low-carbon hydrogen value chain

Several programs are underway to support the development of low-carbon fuels and associated infrastructure required, which provide support to hydrogen projects.

In Budget 2021, the Government of Canada committed to invest $1.5 billion in a Clean Fuels Fund (CFF), with the objective to increase domestic production of clean fuels, including hydrogen and synthetic fuels

  • As of October 2023, the government had selected about 10 hydrogen production projects that will receive support totalling over $300 million
  • In addition, some of the CFF-supported projects may use hydrogen as an intermediary to produce other clean fuels, such as the conversion of Newfoundland and Labrador’s Come By Chance refinery

The Strategic Innovation Fund – Net Zero-Accelerator (SIF-NZA) announced funding for 2 hydrogen projects, the Air Products Net Zero Hydrogen Energy complex in Edmonton, Alberta ($300 million in support) and the AVL Fuel Cell Canada’s global hydrogen fuel cell R&D facility in Burnaby, British Columbia ($15 million)

  • Additional projects are undergoing final negotiations and funding support is expected to be announced in the coming months

The Canada Growth Fund (CGF), announced in the Fall 2022 Economic Statement, is a $15 billion fund designed to offset some of the risks that may deter private capital from flowing into clean energy and technology

  • One of the strategic objectives of the fund is to accelerate the deployment of low-carbon hydrogen
  • The CGF’s mandate is to invest in the scale-up of projects that are beyond the pilot and demonstration phase and have a reasonable expectation of return on capital

The Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) provides financing for decarbonization projects

  • The CIB launched a $500 million Charging and Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure Initiative to help remove barriers to the adoption of zero-emission vehicles
  • In March 2023, the CIB confirmed that it would provide $277 million in financing to the Varennes biorefinery and hydrogen electrolysis project
  • The CIB also provides loan funding for front-end engineering and design (FEED) expenditures for hydrogen production projects through its Project Acceleration program

The Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP) provides $680 million in funding to owners/operators of ZEV infrastructure, delivery organizations, and Indigenous organizations to deploy electric vehicle chargers and hydrogen refuelling stations in Canada

  • ZEVIP targets the deployment of 30 hydrogen stations by 2029

The Government of Canada introduced a suite of programs to accelerate zero-emission transportation, providing funding opportunities for the deployment of hydrogen solutions.

  • The Zero Emission Transit Fund (ZETF) provides $2.75 billion in funding to public transit and school bus operators in Canada to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission buses
  • The $550 million Incentives for Medium and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles (iMHZEV) provides up to $200,000 per vehicle for businesses and communities across the country that make the switch to medium and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles
  • The Zero-Emission Trucking Program (ZETP) will use $75 million in funding to accelerate the safe deployment of medium and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles
  • The Canadian Federation of Municipalities’ $1 billion Green Municipal Fund can fund grants of up to $500,000 to municipalities for zero-emission vehicles and alternative fuel fleet conversion pilot projects

Funding is also available from Canada’s Regional Development Agencies, including PacifiCan, PrairiesCan, FedDev Ontario and the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency. Canada’s regional development agencies have provided over $30 million to date for various hydrogen opportunities, including hub development plans and electrolyser manufacturing facilities.

Regulatory updates that can drive demand and lower emissions

Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), released in mid 2022, requires fossil-based transportation fuels to reduce carbon intensity by 15% (compared to 2016) by 2030. The regulations establish a credit market for regulated parties (producers and importers). Credits are proportional to the carbon intensity of the hydrogen that is used.

The following uses of hydrogen can create CFR credits:

  • Hydrogen used as a fuel or feedstock in the production of liquid fossil fuels
  • Hydrogen used as a fuel or feedstock at a low-carbon-intensity fuel production facility
  • Hydrogen used as a fuel in stationary applications (for example, hydrogen injected in natural gas pipelines)
    • This use of hydrogen creates gaseous credits, which can only be used by regulated parties to satisfy up to 10% of their annual obligation
  • Hydrogen supplied for use in transportation (for example, refuelling hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles)

Canada’s approach to Carbon Pollution Pricing creates an incentive for projects that use low carbon hydrogen, especially in industry or transport. For example, hydrogen could support the decarbonization of industry through high-temperature heat applications (for example, steel and iron production) and as a direct input in heavy oil upgrading and the chemical sector (for example, ammonia for fertilizers).

Both the CFR and Canada’s approach to carbon pollution pricing incentivize Canada’s existing producers and users of carbon-intensive hydrogen, such as in the oil refining, petrochemical, or fertilizer sectors, to reduce the carbon intensity of their hydrogen or transition to low-carbon hydrogen.

Canada’s proposed Methane Regulations will also contribute to a lower lifecycle carbon intensity for hydrogen derived from natural gas. The regulations will reduce upstream oil and gas methane emissions through the introduction of emission standards and work practices to inspect sites and make repairs.

Provincial and territorial measures

Opportunities for hydrogen exist in every region of our country, leveraging unique opportunities and strengths in various jurisdictions, including renewable electricity potential, natural gas reserves, natural geological formations that can be used for carbon capture and storage, critical minerals (some of which play a key role in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies), biomass and clean fuels. Regional hydrogen priorities vary, reflecting provinces’ diverse resources, energy mixes and economic drivers.

Since 2020, 6 provinces have published hydrogen strategies, identifying hydrogen as a provincial clean energy priority and describing provincial actions and objectives to realize their regional low-carbon hydrogen objectives. British Columbia and Alberta released strategies in 2021, with Ontario and Québec publishing their strategies in 2022. Nova Scotia published its Green Hydrogen Action Plan in 2023, and New Brunswick published its Hydrogen Roadmap in early 2024. Newfoundland and Labrador is developing a Hydrogen Development Action Plan, and Manitoba is also currently working on a provincial strategy.

Provinces are advancing hydrogen priorities through various initiatives and investments, such as British Columbia’s Hydrogen Office within its Clean Energy and Major Projects Office, Alberta’s Hydrogen Centre of Excellence or Atlantic wind energy leases.

Appendix II provides a provincial perspective on recent developments in the hydrogen space and further details on provincial and territorial measures.

Indigenous partnerships and participation

Indigenous Partnerships in or Indigenous-Led Projects

  • World Energy GH2 and Qalipu FN
  • EverWind Fuels and Membertou, Paqtnkek, Potlokek FNs
  • FFI and Home Guard Cree FN
  • FFI and Lheidli-’T’enneh FN
  • ABO and Miawpukek FN
  • Hydrogen Naturally and Fort Nelson FN
  • Tse’khene Energy Transition Hub
  • Wáwátéwák Corridor
  • Edmonton Region Hydrogen Hub and Enoch Cree, Alexander FNs
  • Grey Bruce Hub and Saugeen FN
  • Belledune and Pabineau, Eel River Bar FNs
  • Kanata and Frog Lake FN

The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada identified that the emerging hydrogen economy could offer new opportunities to Indigenous groups and communities through employment and new business creation. Today, evidence of these opportunities is underway, with examples of Indigenous participation in major production projects and hubs initiatives stemming from early relationships that have begun to be built by Canada’s low-carbon hydrogen sector.

Currently, there are approximately 13 partnership agreements or memoranda of understanding between hydrogen project proponents and Indigenous groups, communities or organizations that NRCan is aware of, in addition to Indigenous participation and co-chairing of the Edmonton Region Hydrogen Hub and participation in the proposed Grey Bruce Hydrogen Hub.

International context, exports, and competitiveness

Since 2020, major geopolitical events have been affecting the global energy market. Russia’s unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine that began in February 2022 has dramatically shifted the energy landscape in Europe. It led to soaring commodity prices for consumers, and highlighted dependence on fossil fuels and the risks of an undiversified energy supply. These factors have reinforced the importance of energy security, with countries seeking to invest in energy infrastructure, diversify energy suppliers, produce more energy locally through renewables and redirect imports to reliable, politically stable partners.

In response, countries are developing policies and making investments to accelerate the energy transition. The US Inflation Reduction Act, the European Commission’s REPowerEU Plan, Australia’s Hydrogen Headstart Program and the GX Green Transformation in Japan are examples of this. These and other measures increase opportunities for low-carbon hydrogen, as importing countries look to strengthen energy security and diversified energy supplies, and countries rich in hydrogen feedstocks compete for offtake agreements.

Canada is likewise aiming to be a key player in the nascent global clean hydrogen and ammonia market. Leveraging our abundant feedstocks, stable geopolitical environment, and commitment to a clean economy, Canada is well positioned to provide competitively priced low-carbon ammonia, as the near-term vector for hydrogen, to global markets. Canada’s 23 clean hydrogen export projects constitute the majority of potential investment in new production projects.

In the East, Atlantic Canada’s abundant and untapped wind resources and immediate proximity to Atlantic shipping routes will allow wind-to-hydrogen electrolysis projects to become reliable suppliers of clean hydrogen to Germany and other European markets. Germany has announced its intention to import up to 50-70 percent of its hydrogen demand by 2030 (approximately 3-4 million tonnes of hydrogen annually) as it looks to decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial sectors that cannot be electrified and to cut dependence on imported fossil fuels from Russia. In the West, export projects deriving ammonia from natural gas are looking to export to Japan, South Korea, and Asian markets, largely as a means to reduce emissions from coal power.

To advance the clean hydrogen export opportunity, Canada is actively engaging with its allies and signing commitments to support energy security through the production and export of hydrogen and its derivatives, including:

  • the 2021 Memorandum of Understanding between Canada and the Netherlands on cooperation in the field of hydrogen energy, which seeks to advance the development of export-import corridors and enhance cooperation on topics such as standards, certification, investment, trade and technologies. Canada and Netherlands have since engaged on ports collaboration and a supply chain study
  • the 2021 Memorandum of Understanding between Natural Resources Canada and the United States Department of Energy on energy cooperation, which aims to jointly identify green corridors and cross-border hydrogen hubs and accelerate efforts to develop and standardize common global methodology for carbon intensity. This collaboration has advanced through engagement under the North American Leaders Summit Declaration
  • the August 2022 Joint Declaration of Intent to establish a Canada-Germany Hydrogen Alliance, which seeks to create a transatlantic supply chain for hydrogen before 2030. Achievements since the partnership was formed include a working group, supply chain analysis, and ongoing consideration of co-financing mechanisms, including the memorandum of understanding signed March 2024
  • the May 2023 Memorandum of Understanding with South Korea on cooperation in critical mineral supply chains, the clean energy transition and energy security, which features hydrogen, its derivatives, and enabling technologies as one of the key areas of cooperation
  • the Canada-Japan Energy Policy Dialogue, active since 2019, which signed an updated Action Plan for 2023 to 2025 where ammonia was added to the hydrogen pillar. Under this forum, Canada and Japan aim to explore market opportunities and ways to bolster cooperation, including on the export of low-carbon ammonia from Canada to Japan to help decarbonize Japan’s power sector
  • inclusion of hydrogen in the Canada-EU High-Level Energy Dialogue, active since 2007, where Canada and the EU collaborate on mutual goals of energy security and the clean energy transition. A hydrogen Action Plan was signed in March 2023 to cooperate on supply chain analyses and trade and investment missions to EU members

Advancing Market Access to Germany

Building on the Joint Declaration of Intent, in March 2024 Canada and Germany signed a Memorandum of Understanding to establish a first-of-its-kind program for a dedicated Bilateral Window through Germany’s H2Global Foundation. The program will support commercial transactions between Canada’s hydrogen producers and Germany’s industrial manufacturing and energy distribution sectors by committing Canada and Germany to launch aligned supply and demand auctions in the coming months through which Hydrogen Purchase Agreements will be secured. Accelerating commercial-scale hydrogen trade between Canada and Germany by securing early access for clean Canadian hydrogen producers in the Germany market will strengthen both countries’ efforts to fight climate change and enhance energy security.

These agreements build on the policy framework enacted by Canada in support of low-carbon hydrogen across the value chain, from production supports through our clean economy investment tax credits to creating an environment that incentivizes decarbonization efforts through carbon pricing and clean fuel regulations. Third party analysis by consultancy, Wood Mackenzie, verifies that Canada has already established itself as a leading market for low-carbon hydrogen exports, backed by one of the most advanced states of hydrogen policy readiness.

Ministers from Canada and Germany sign memorandum of understanding in Hamburg Chamber of Commerce

Figure 2: Canada and Germany sign memorandum of understanding to advance market access in Hamburg, 2024. Source: Hamburg Chamber of Commerce

2. Sector progress and recommendations status

2.1 Sector progress

Hydrogen production

There are 13 low-carbon hydrogen production facilities in operation in Canada, comprising 6 electrolytic facilities and 7 projects that have adopted carbon capture to lower the emissions of traditionally carbon intensive hydrogen production. The Air Liquide 20 MW electrolyser in Bécancour, Québec began operating in 2021, and was the largest electrolyser plant in the world at that time.

Approximately 80 production projects have been announced since the Hydrogen Strategy was released in 2020 and are at various stages of development. Combined, these 80 projects have the potential to bring 5 million tonnes of annual low carbon hydrogen production capacity online if all were to become fully operational, and represent over $100 billion in potential investment.

Most of these projects will produce low-carbon hydrogen through electrolysis or natural gas reforming (via steam methane reforming or autothermal reforming) with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A few early-stage projects are developing the use of pyrolysis technology, and some are planning on the use of biomass gasification with CCS. The projects are targeting a broad array of end uses, including oil and gas refining, industry feedstock, natural gas blending, transport and several projects focused on ammonia production for export.

Highlights of key production projects across Canada are featured in Appendix I.

Text version

Bar graph showing the number of announced hydrogen production projects per project stage, with production pathway type, and the total amount of planned hydrogen production per project stage. 5 projects are listed as pre-feasibility, totaling approximately 0.5 million tonnes per year (MTpa) of hydrogen production. 59 projects are in the feasibility/planning stage totalling close to 3.5 MTpa, 8 projects are in development totalling approximately 0.8 MT, and 6 projects are in advanced development, totalling almost 0.2 MT.

Figure 3: Status and estimated hydrogen capacity of production projects, by production method.

Source: Compiled by NRCan, based on information disclosed publicly and derived from various sources, as well as information disclosed in confidence. Data is provided in aggregate to maintain confidentiality. Production is not representative of all projects due to data gaps and limitations. Estimates may include full potential build-out of proposed plants, components of which may be in earlier stages of development. Projects of unknown status are excluded. Project status assigned to the best of NRCan knowledge.


  • Advanced development – Under construction
  • Development – Some permitting, regulatory approvals or processes and other preparatory work underway, but construction has not yet commenced
  • Planning/feasibility – Active planning underway, which may include feasibility studies, pre-FEED and FEED work and other project activities
  • Pre-feasibility – Announced plans or agreement but limited or unknown planning and feasibility activity commenced

Hydrogen end-use and hubs

On the demand side, projects are underway across each of the potential end uses of low-carbon hydrogen that were identified in Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy, showing the potential of hydrogen as a decarbonization opportunity in the areas of transport, industry, buildings or heating (natural gas blending), and electricity generation and storage. Hydrogen hubs are forming in many of the areas where production and end-use projects have been announced.

Hydrogen end-use projects and hubs developments, as well as updated findings since 2020 related to each end use, are described below.


Vehicle refuelling

Hydrogen refuelling networks are developing in British Columbia, Québec, Ontario and Alberta, which will enable more widespread fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) adoption, including in commercial applications.

  • HTEC has built a network of 5 operational light-duty vehicle hydrogen fuelling stations across British Columbia, with more planned for construction
  • Hydrolux’s “Trans-Québec 1” project includes the development of 7 hydrogen refuelling stations equipped with 5 MW electrolysers
  • Air Products is planning to build Alberta’s first commercial refuelling station near its Net Zero hydrogen production complex for both heavy-duty trucks and light-duty cars
  • Greater Toronto Airports Authority is working with Carlsun Energy to develop Ontario’s first public hydrogen refuelling station at Toronto Pearson, with $1 million in funding from NRCan’s ZEVIP program
Trucking and freight

Hydrogen powertrains, whether based on fuel cells or combustion, provide the best path forward for heavier truck classes needing the significant range, higher energy density and faster refilling times of hydrogen. New hydrogen-platform business and truck models are being developed and early demonstration projects have been announced or are planned.

  • The Alberta Zero Emissions Truck Electrification Collaboration (AZETEC) involves the demonstration of 2 heavy-duty, class 8 fuel cell electric trucks that will operate freight, year round, between Edmonton and Calgary
  • The Alberta Motor Transport Association has launched a “Hydrogen Vehicle Road Show” to deploy hydrogen vehicles into member company fleets to build awareness, comfort and interest in hydrogen vehicles
  • BC-based Hydra Energy has received orders for over 80 of its hydrogen-diesel dual fuel retrofits, which use up to 40% hydrogen and will also support deployment with the construction of the world’s largest hydrogen fuel station, to be commissioned in 2024
  • BC-based HTEC is receiving $16.5 million from British Columbia for the Pilot Hydrogen Truck Program to procure 6 heavy-duty fuel-cell trucks and complete updates to a hydrogen-fuelling station in Tsawwassen and a maintenance facility in Abbotsford
Urban transit

Hydrogen fuel cell buses (FCEBs) are well suited to longer routes, such as bus rapid transit, suburban, or regional commuter routes, and while battery electric buses have a 23% reduced range in winter, FCEBs provide the same operating range year-round. More than 4,000 FCEBs have been deployed worldwide.

  • Edmonton Transit and neighbouring Strathcona County are conducting a pilot trial of 2 hydrogen buses (the buses are currently in service)
  • Winnipeg Transit, through its “Transition to Zero Emission Program,” is planning to deploy 33 buses by 2027, with a target of 8 fuel cell buses by 2024
  • Mississauga is exploring funding for the MiWay Hydrogen FCEB pilot project to trial 10 buses
  • Brampton is planning to have 2 demo buses by 2025 as part of its Zero-Emission Bus Study
  • Halifax Transit is considering a bus depot retrofit to switch 40 to 60 buses to hydrogen

Rail’s energy intense duty cycle and long ranges makes it a sector that is particularly challenging to electrify. Pilot projects are underway that will provide information on the performance and potential opportunity of hydrogen trains in Canada.

  • In Québec, Alstom piloted a Coradia iLint Hydrogen train from Montmorency Falls to Baie-Saint Paul over the summer of 2023, carrying over 10,000 passengers over 130 trips, saving 8,400 litres of diesel and averting 22 tonnes of CO2 emissions
  • In BC and Alberta, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Southern Railways are retrofitting diesel locomotives, with ATCO constructing 1 MW electrolysers at Calgary and Edmonton railyards

Hydrogen can enable decarbonization of airport operations through deployment of FCEVs and may also help decarbonize aviation through the use of fuel cell planes and hydrogen’s use as a low-carbon alternative fuel or in the production of sustainable aviation fuel.

  • Edmonton International Airport is planning to convert some of its airport operations vehicles, including trucks and buses, to hydrogen and is in the early stages of exploring infrastructure for hydrogen aircraft (it added 100 Toyota Mirai hydrogen FCEVs to its fleet in June 2023)
  • DeHavilland and ZeroAvia signed a memorandum of understanding in 2022 to collaborate on a hydrogen fuel cell powered Dash 8 aircraft
  • Avmax AirCraft ordered 20 turboprop regional hydrogen aircraft and fuel from Universal Hydrogen
Port operations

Projects are underway to demonstrate hydrogen in port operations through terminal tractor, yard and Class 8 drayage truck vehicles.

  • BC is providing $4 million through its Commercial Vehicle Pilots Program and Advanced Research and Commercialization program to the BC Hydrogen Ports Project to demonstrate hydrogen at the Port of Vancouver, led by a consortium of companies headed by HTEC
  • The Port of Montreal took delivery in June 2022 of 2 hydrogen-powered equipment prototypes, including a terminal tractor, to pilot deployment at the Port

Heavy industry

Petroleum refining and petrochemicals

Projects are announced and operational to capture carbon from (carbon intensive) hydrogen production at existing facilities. New developments could achieve capture rates up to 98% when paired with autothermal reforming.

  • Shell’s Scotford Upgrader captured 77% of its carbon emissions in 2022 from producing hydrogen used for upgrading bitumen to produce synthetic crude, surpassing 7.7 million tonnes of injected CO2 since project start-up
  • Nutrien’s Redwater Sturgeon refinery and fertilizer plants have implemented CCUS utilizing the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line, transporting 1.6 Mt of CO2 annually for storage and use
  • DOW announced plans in 2021 to construct the first worldwide net-zero polyethylene facility in Alberta, which would make use of a hydrogen-fuelled ethylene cracker

The steelmaking sector estimates Can$3 per kg of hydrogen, equivalent to 3 to 4 times what the industry currently pays for natural gas, is required for hydrogen to be economical as a heating fuel or reductant.

  • ArcelorMittal Dofasco in Ontario plans to end the use of coal in its plants, by installing a direct reduced iron plant and electric arc furnace
    • The direct reduction process will operate with natural gas to begin with but will be hydrogen-compatible to transition to low-carbon hydrogen fuel as soon as cost-competitive supply is available
  • At its steel plant in Contrecoeur, Québec, ArcelorMittal has successfully tested replacing 6.8% natural gas with low-carbon hydrogen during a 24-hour period to produce direct reduced iron, contributing to a measurable reduction in CO2 emissions
    • This was a step forward as the iron ore reduction process contributes more than 75% of ArcelorMittal’s overall CO2 emissions
Biofuel production

Hydrogen can be a feedstock in the production of synthetic fuels and biofuels, including e-methane, e-gasoline, sustainable aviation fuel and e-methanol, which is gaining traction as a low-carbon marine fuel for shipping.

  • Varennes biorefinery and hydrogen electrolysis project will produce biofuels from waste (wood and non-recyclable materials) and will include a 90 MW Cummins electrolyser
    • It is receiving $277 million in financing from the Canada Infrastructure Bank
  • Imperial Oil Strathcona refinery in Alberta plans to combine natural gas-derived hydrogen, carbon capture and a biofeedstock combined with a proprietary catalyst, to produce low-carbon renewable diesel
  • Tidewater Renewables at the Prince George Refinery in British Columbia is Canada’s first stand alone renewable diesel refinery that has recently completed construction and will soon begin production of low-carbon hydrogen
  • Braya Renewable Fuels is partnering with ABO Wind to power the Come By Chance Refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador with low-carbon hydrogen by 2027 and begin exporting biofuels to foreign markets by 2028
    • The project has been provided $37 million in funding from the Clean Fuels Fund and $49 million in funding from the Strategic Innovation Fund

Blending and energy storage

Natural gas blending

Blending pilots and feasibility studies are underway across Canada. The Canadian Standards Association has acknowledged that blending up to 5% hydrogen by volume is covered under current certifications for appliances.

  • Enbridge’s 2.5 MW power-to-gas and natural gas blending project in Markham, Ontario, is currently servicing 3,600 households with up to a 2% blend of hydrogen in its natural gas, reducing GHG emissions by 117 tonnes per year
    • The project was provided $882 thousand in funding from Sustainable Development Technology Canada and $1.8 million from Ontario’s Hydrogen Innovation Fund
  • In October 2022 in Alberta, ATCO began delivering a blend of natural gas containing 5% hydrogen by volume in Fort Saskatchewan, safely servicing 2,100 customers
    • Their Operations Centre will be the first commercial building in North America heated by 100% hydrogen when it becomes operational in 2024 and will demonstrate pure hydrogen appliances and equipment
  • ATCO and Qualico are currently studying the logistics, technology requirements and other considerations in safely and affordably developing a 100% pure hydrogen community in the proposed Bremner 100% Hydrogen Community in Strathcona, Alberta
  • In 2023, ATCO and Certarus partnered to fuel the Edmonton Convention Centre in Alberta with a 20% hydrogen blend when it hosted the 2023 Canadian Hydrogen Convention
  • In Québec, Evolugen and Gazifière’s 20 MW Masson electrolysis project in Gatineau will produce approximately 425,000 GJ of low-carbon hydrogen for injection into Gazifière’s natural gas distribution network, reducing GHG emissions by approximately 15,000 tonnes per year
  • FortisBC is exploring opportunities to blend hydrogen into the natural gas system in British Columbia and is advancing a technical blending study in collaboration with Enbridge
Electricity and energy storage

Projects underway or under consideration are demonstrating that hydrogen can decarbonize former coal or natural gas power plants or provide medium-term energy storage, grid stabilization, or to short-term storage to avoid excess renewables curtailment.

  • In July 2022, Heartland Generation in Alberta announced it would convert the Battle River Generating Station, a former coal facility, to operate on 100% clean hydrogen produced using autothermal reforming technology with a carbon capture rate of 98%
    • Combined with an open access carbon capture hub, if fully utilized, the project could reduce 5 Mt of GHG emissions annually
  • Niagara Hydrogen Centre, to be built, owned and operated by Atura Power, will be Ontario’s largest low-carbon hydrogen production facility
    • It will deploy a 20 MW electrolyser in the City of Niagara Falls, Ontario, to produce low-carbon hydrogen while supporting the Sir Adam Beck hydroelectric facility’s provision of grid regulation services for the Ontario electricity grid
  • Triple Point is considering a major salt dome storage project near Stephenville, Newfoundland and Labrador, with potential to store more than 35 million cubic metres, or the equivalent of 180,000 tonnes of hydrogen, which could be used to store hydrogen destined for export or to store electricity from renewable generation as compressed air

  Hydrogen hubs

Hydrogen hubs (regional networks of hydrogen producers, consumers and expertise, linked by connective infrastructure) are developing across the country.

  • The Edmonton Region Hydrogen Hub includes more than 25 projects across the value chain
    • It has Indigenous co-chairing and has received more than $2 million in government funding
    • It has launched the 5,000 Hydrogen Vehicle Challenge as an initiative aimed at getting 5,000 hydrogen powered vehicles, such as buses, trucks or farm equipment, on the road in Western Canada within 5 years
  • The Vancouver area is a major hub of Canada’s hydrogen innovation, fuel cell and manufacturing companies, and has the greatest concentration of operational hydrogen refuelling infrastructure
    • Simon Fraser University and the University of British Columbia are both leading hydrogen hub initiatives for production, innovation and technology testbeds
  • British Columbia considers the Prince George hub as an ideal location for a central hub given its existing infrastructure and is co-developing a study with the city to advance development
  • Sarnia-Lambton has outlined a hydrogen hub proposal, forecasting hydrogen demand to increase up to 1 Mt annually by 2050
    • The hub would service petroleum refining and ammonia for fertilizers and have the benefit of nearby salt caverns for reservoir storage and connections to US markets
  • The Air Liquide hydrogen production plant in Bécancour will be part of Québec’s “Vallée de la transition énergétique” announced in May 2023, providing a supply of clean hydrogen to 7 clean energy, innovation, and industrial decarbonization projects that are receiving over $8 million in funding from Québec
  • Early-stage hubs are under consideration in Calgary Alberta, Selkirk Manitoba and Grey-Bruce Ontario

2.2 Implementation framework – Results

The Hydrogen Strategy implementation framework was established in early 2021 to maintain momentum towards building Canada’s hydrogen economy and to follow through on the Strategy’s 32 recommendations. Led by NRCan, the implementation framework consists of 16 thematic working groups covering specific topics and areas that cut across all aspects of the hydrogen value chain.

Working group membership is diverse and consists of over 1,000 individuals from government, industry, academia, and non-governmental organizations. Oversight was provided by a Strategic Steering Committee, supported by an Interdepartmental Working Group and a Federal-Provincial-Territorial working group. Each group was co-chaired by a government and industry representative.

Over 80 working group meetings were held to deepen the knowledge of sector challenges and opportunities and build collaboration networks across industry, governments, utilities, and academia.

The working groups provided analysis that underpins this Progress Report and produced 9 strategic reports, including:

  • an export study to deepen understanding of global export markets for Canada’s low-carbon hydrogen exports, which analyzed costs of various export pathways
  • a ports techno-economic analysis, which noted a number of existing ports in Atlantic Canada are well positioned to consider infrastructure upgrades necessary to export to European import ports
  • technical assessments on hydrogen production from renewable and from nuclear electricity
  • a study on the potential for hydrogen to decarbonize steelmaking, which found hydrogen could pave the way for emissions-free steel production if costs of low-carbon hydrogen were lower
  • 4 reports analyzing the role of natural gas-derived hydrogen, including to meet future demand, analyze technical feasibility of blending, considerations for an emissions intensity threshold and on certifying natural gas home appliances

Codes and standards development

The work of the Codes and Standards Working Group has also been a key part of delivering on the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation Framework. Harmonizing codes and standards and addressing gaps is essential to enable hydrogen adoption and deployment.

Canada committed $50 million from 2021 to 2026 to support enabling the research and development of new codes and standards.

The Hydrogen Strategy’s Codes and Standards Working Group will complete a Codes and Standards Road Map in 2024. Beyond identifying the gaps that exist, the roadmap will prioritize the various codes and standards gaps based on how critical they are for the hydrogen value chain. It is expected to identify short-term priority elements in the areas of production, delivery and storage, and end-use applications such as bus and truck transportation or steel production.

The working group includes participation from and supports the work of organizations that formally develop codes and standards in Canada. Codes and standards for hydrogen are developed in Canada by accredited standards development organizations (SDOs), such as the Canadian Standards Association (operating as CSA Group), Bureau de normalisation du Québec or the Compressed Gas Association, with support and expertise from governments, industry associations, businesses, regulatory authorities, consumers and end users.

SDOs have been actively working with stakeholders to amend, update or develop new hydrogen codes and standards across the hydrogen value chain:

  • CSA Group has supported the development of 22 CSA codes, standards and technical specifications covering the hydrogen value chain
    • In addition, over 80 CSA standards were impacted by a recent “Request for Interpretation”, where CSA clarified that natural gas containing up to 5% of hydrogen is already covered by existing requirements in the standards (as such, certifications in accordance with these standards would remain valid for these blending levels)
  • In 2022, the Bureau de normalisation du Québec (an accredited national standards development organization) updated the Canadian Hydrogen Installation Code
    • This code, which was developed in compliance with Standards Council of Canada requirements, sets the installation requirements for hydrogen-generating equipment for non-process end-use hydrogen utilization equipment, hydrogen-dispensing equipment, hydrogen storage containers, hydrogen piping systems and their related accessoriesFootnote 6

Canada has also helped advance international codes and standards and certification that will enable global trade in low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives. At COP 28, Canada signed the Declaration of Intent on Mutual Recognition of Certification Schemes for Renewable and Low Carbon Hydrogen and Hydrogen Derivatives. Through its participation in the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy, Canada also helped develop ISO/TS 19870, an international methodology for determining hydrogen GHG emissions.

2.3 Recommendations

The Hydrogen Strategy developed 32 recommendations addressed to all levels of government, industry, utilities, academia, non-governmental organizations and standards development organizations, in order to progress on the hydrogen opportunity. The recommendations were organized according to 8 pillars.

This Progress Report is the first progress report on these recommendations. Canada is on target for 13 of the recommendations, progressing on 16, and progress on 3 recommendations has been limited.

Progress was made on recommendations related to strategic partnerships, codes and standards, and the creation of a policy ecosystem of enabling policies and regulations to de-risk investments. This is evidenced by the establishment of measures such as the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit, funding programs such as the Clean Fuels Fund and Strategic Innovation Fund – Net-Zero Accelerator and the development of 22 codes and standards.

Actions recommended under the regional blueprints and international markets pillar have also progressed well, as can be seen with the establishment of 8 regional hydrogen hubs. On international markets, Canada has done well to develop a strong Canadian brand as can be evidenced through the multiple international agreements, such as the Canada-Germany Energy Partnership or agreements targeting Asian markets. However, export infrastructure has yet to be deployed.

Regarding innovation, progress has been made through research and development reports, federal funding such as through NRCan’s Energy Innovation Program or the founding of research centres such as Alberta’s Hydrogen Centre of Excellence. But there are few streams of dedicated or sustained funding for hydrogen research, development and innovation to date. Progress on awareness recommendations and actions, such as awareness campaigns or development of tools and resources to help quantitatively evaluate hydrogen as an option, was limited.

Details on the status of recommendations and progress can be found in Appendix III.

2.4 Modelling projections of low-carbon hydrogen’s role in net-zero by 2050

The modelling supporting the Hydrogen Strategy was focused on understanding the full potential role of low-carbon hydrogen in Canada’s energy system. Since then, there have been a number of modelling initiatives that have provided further analysis and projections of the future role of low-carbon hydrogen within Canada’s overall energy system, including scenarios in which Canada reaches net-zero emissions by 2050.

For this Progress Report, Canada looked at 6 recent national modelling initiatives from a variety of organizations and is providing the range of possible outcomes for future hydrogen consumption, production, and exports. The 6 modelling initiatives included:

  • Canada Energy Regulator (CER) – Canada Energy Futures 2023
  • ESMIA Consultants (ESMIA) – Modelling Hydrogen’s Potential Across Multiple Sectors of the Canadian Economy, prepared on behalf of NRCan
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) – Exploring Approaches for Canada’s Transition to Net-Zero Emissions
  • Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) – Canada’s Net Zero Future
  • Navius Research (Navius) – Canada Energy Dashboard
  • Trottier Institute (Trottier) – Canadian Energy Outlook, Pathways Explorer

Projecting the energy system and the role of hydrogen necessarily involves speculative assumptions about the future evolution of policies, technologies and global markets. This results in a wide range of results and uncertainties.

The modelling initiatives discussed in this report include the following limitations:

  • None are a market forecast – other than certain “current measures” scenarios, they represent what the energy system could look like in scenarios where Canada reaches net zero by 2050
  • None of the scenarios include the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit (CHITC) in their underlying assumptions, as the initial design details were not available at the time the modelling was completed
  • Net-zero projections invariably limit hydrogen blending with natural gas, as net-zero scenarios gravitate to pathways with limited unabated fossil fuel use, rather than near-term reduction opportunities such as those offered by blending hydrogen in natural gas distribution systems
  • While some scenarios assume a certain level of hydrogen exports from Canada, the export potential is not based on an extensive assessment of future global demand and Canada’s potential role. Net-zero projections also limit proper consideration of the benefits of hydrogen exports. Though it may not contribute as directly to Canada reaching net zero, low-carbon hydrogen produced for export in Canada will contribute to sustainable green job creation, international energy security, and global emissions reductions

By using different modelling approaches and running scenarios with varying technological, economic, and policy assumptions, these modelling initiatives have produced a range of results, which offer insights into how Canada’s hydrogen sector might evolve when subject to different constraints or enablers as Canada works towards a net zero energy system by 2050.

By presenting the results of 6 modelling initiatives, this Progress Report provides a transparent picture of the state of projections of the role of hydrogen in Canada. Ultimately, the results show fair alignment on the role that low-carbon hydrogen could play in Canada’s efforts to reach net zero, including greater certainty in a potential role in transportation and heavy industry.

Key findings

  1. Overall, up to 18% of Canada’s total energy use could be provided by low-carbon hydrogen by 2050. Most projections fall in the range of 3% to 12%. The scenarios that assume supportive policies or cost reductions could be seen as a proxy for including the CHITC. These scenarios fall in the range of projecting 12% to 18%.
  2. Most scenarios project low-carbon hydrogen to be a viable and economical decarbonization option in hard-to-abate sectors such as medium and heavy-duty transportation (trucks, buses) or heavy industry (refining, petrochemicals, steel). Hydrogen used in transport could range from 12% to 35% of the sector’s energy use in 2050 and up to 18% of energy consumption in industry.
  3. The majority of scenarios project total low-carbon hydrogen production to range from 6 to 20 million tonnes per year, but the models vary in projecting whether this production would generally come from electrolysis, natural gas with carbon capture or biomass with carbon capture.
  4. Exports of hydrogen could play a large role in spurring sector growth, with the scenarios focused on estimating potential exports projecting the highest levels of potential jobs and economic benefits. Not all scenarios considered exports, and for those that did, there is no available projection of the future growth of the global low-carbon hydrogen market to aid in the analysis.
  5. Few of the modelling initiatives were expressly designed to estimate emissions reductions from low-carbon hydrogen uptake. The overall range of emission reduction results in 2050 was from 17 Mt to 69 Mt in domestic reductions (or up to 109 Mt in global reductions when considering exports). The midpoint of this range would correspond to approximately 6% of Canada’s 2020 emissions, in line with the International Energy Agency’s global Net-Zero Scenario that found that 6% of global cumulative emission reductions from 2021 to 2050 were projected to come from low carbon hydrogen displacing fossil fuels.

Details of the modelling projections can be found in Appendix IV.

Text version

Bar graph showing projections of hydrogen consumption in million tonnes (Mt) in Canada in 2050 across 26 modelling scenarios, as well as as a percentage share of total energy end use. The bars are organized from left-to-right from lowest to highest projections, ranging from near 0 to up to approximately 13 Mt, and 18%.

Figure 4: Domestic low-carbon hydrogen consumption and share of end use in Canada in 2050.

Note: All scenarios, including those described as ‘current measures’, do not include CHITC.

Text version

Bar graph showing projections of hydrogen production totals and by source of production from 13 modelling projections, both in petajoules (left hand scale) and in million tonnes of hydrogen (right hand scale). The projections are organized from lowest on the left to highest on the right. The 3 lowest estimates project under 1 Mt of primarily natural gas with CCS production, while the highest estimate on the right projects over 20 Mt, of which the majority comes from electrolysis, approximately 7 Mt is produced from natural gas with CCS, and the remainder from biomass.

Figure 5: Low-carbon hydrogen production in 2050, by source.

Note: All scenarios, including those described as ‘current measures’, do not include CHITC.

3. What’s next: Priorities and actions

Canada’s strategic priorities for next reporting period (2024 to 2026)

To focus resources in areas to be most effective, and based on engagement with the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation framework membership, the following strategic priorities were identified to guide collective actions during the next reporting period (2024 to 2026).

1. De-risk high-impact production projects of low-carbon hydrogen

First-mover production projects like Air Liquide’s 20 MW or Enbridge’s 2.5 MW Markham electrolysers are operational and other major projects have received environmental approval or are under construction. But other projects are still under development. While these proposed projects are expected to make use of the forthcoming Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit or other supports identified in this Progress Report, there remains a long road ahead for many projects before regulatory approvals, final investment decisions and construction are completed. Ongoing risks include securing offtake agreements or having sufficient confidence in future demand and navigating potential labour or supply chain constraints in the build-out of the project.

A key step to realizing Canada’s potential is to de-risk high impact production projects so that they can move ahead. This is important for projects that provide domestic GHG reductions or significant economic benefits, such as job creation or exports. It is also important for projects with regional benefits or those that have potential to establish new supply chains or drive technological innovation. Maintaining a competitive policy framework will be an important action by Canada to de-risk high impact production projects.

Other actions include regulatory streamlining (where appropriate), carbon contracts for difference, continuing to support innovation to reduce the cost of key technologies, unlocking infrastructure or safety considerations (such as transportation of ammonia by unit trains on rail) and implementing the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit. In regions without untapped wind or renewable resources, electrolysis projects will need Canada to continue to decarbonize its electricity grid and scale up new clean electricity generation, consistent with Canada’s forthcoming Electricity Strategy and electrification objectives.

As these initial low-carbon hydrogen production projects move forward, they will support Canada’s long-term goal, as specified in the Hydrogen Strategy, of continuing to lower the life cycle carbon intensity of hydrogen production projects to maximize hydrogen’s decarbonization and international energy security potential.

2. Achieve scalable hubs and strategic corridors, targeting end-uses with greatest potential

Hydrogen hubs, which are regional networks of hydrogen producers and consumers linked by connective infrastructure, are developing across Canada, but many are still at an early stage. They can also be regional enabling environments, such as ongoing coordination in Atlantic Canada on wind-hydrogen export projects and infrastructure. Hubs will benefit from support to understand the market and GHG reduction opportunities in their regional area and continuing to build connections among supply and demand projects to become self-sustaining and to achieve scale necessary to efficiently lower costs.

Strategic hydrogen corridors, along with hubs, can form the backbone of the future hydrogen sector. Corridors can be land-based, such as between Prince George and Vancouver hubs or the Windsor-Montréal freight corridor or marine-based export and trade corridors from ports to other domestic or international hubs. In 2024, Canada will begin developing a hubs and corridors strategy that will analyze the most promising areas and regions for investment in hydrogen hubs and corridors.

The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada outlines all of the areas and end uses where low-carbon hydrogen could play a potential role in Canada’s decarbonization efforts. Today, Canada’s potential end-use markets are clearer. Hydrogen will play a key role in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, especially where alternatives are unavailable or limited. This evidence currently points to some end-use applications for low-carbon hydrogen being more mature or having more potential than others, including the medium and heavy-duty vehicle transportation sector (for example, long-haul freight trucking and urban transit), heavy industry (for example, steel, chemical and refining) and blending, especially where blending could potentially pave the way for full-hydrogen replacement of natural gas, where appropriate.

Focusing on the near-term deployment of hydrogen in these applications, especially as part of hubs and corridors, will support the establishment of a domestic market, and show how hydrogen can provide GHG reductions, in areas that would otherwise be costly to decarbonize.

3. Codes and standards

Developing codes and standards continues to be important for the deployment of hydrogen technologies, fuel cells and refuelling infrastructure, providing investor certainty across the value chain. It will also be important for furthering the understanding of hydrogen leakage as relating to codes and standards to ensure net GHG benefits of hydrogen use and to drive best practices.

The development of codes and standards across the vast and varied hydrogen value chain is a multi-year process and is led by organizations largely independent of government. It is a patient process that requires persistence and coordination among multiple levels of government, industry and utilities, as well as international coordination, to ensure Canadian standards are effectively harmonized with international requirements for safety, performance and reliability. The Codes and Standards Working Group will publish Canada’s Hydrogen Codes and Standards Roadmap in 2024, setting the stage for next steps in low-carbon hydrogen codes and standards development.

4. Awareness and market data

When the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada was released in December 2020, it was intended as a call to action to all stakeholders in the hydrogen value chain on the opportunity that hydrogen presents. This call was heeded following the launch of the implementation framework and subsequent mobilization across various sub-sectors of the economy. However, average citizens have limited understanding of the potential of hydrogen as a low-carbon energy opportunity to decarbonize and support economic growth in households in Canada. This lack of awareness can result in low confidence in the safety and transformative potential of hydrogen.

Delaying action on hydrogen awareness will inevitably become a bottleneck in gaining social acceptance. While there have been a large number of reports and studies generated over the past years, including by the working groups under the Hydrogen Strategy, more efforts need to be made to ensure their conclusions are broadly disseminated.

Governments, academia and industry need to actively raise awareness to facilitate public acceptance of low-carbon hydrogen, especially in the areas identified as strategic priorities such as de-risking production, end use and hubs projects. Successful examples include information sessions by Transit Authorities displaying Fuel Cell Buses for citizens to learn about hydrogen fuel cells, to support for hydrogen blending projects as a form of passive decarbonization requiring limited public adaptation.

Expectations also continue to grow for improved market data, expertise, projections, analysis and knowledge of low-carbon hydrogen, especially as scrutiny over its potential role for decarbonization increases or as further policy mechanisms are taken into consideration. Modelling projections need to be continually refined and updated to likewise take into account market changes and technological innovations as they arrive.

While a new Statistics Canada survey will report on low-carbon hydrogen production and be available by 2025, it will continue to be a priority for governments and industry to ensure low-carbon hydrogen market data and knowledge is thorough and robust, and for new government modelling to continuously improve, such as to include provincial granularity, economic market forecasting outside of a net-zero scenario and proper incorporation of the impact of recently announced measures like the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit and others.

Next steps in implementing Canada’s Hydrogen Strategy

The past 3 years of collaboration through the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation Framework’s working groups has generated a wealth of discussions, research, analysis and advice that has allowed Canada to progress on the Hydrogen Strategy’s 32 recommendations, as well as underpin the information provided in this Progress Report.

Going forward, Canada will look to improve the functioning of the implementation framework, focusing on ensuring efficient information sharing, improved communication and public transparency, and that it reflects strategic priorities and market developments of the low-carbon hydrogen sector. One way this could be achieved could be by establishing a regular virtual hydrogen energy forum, bringing together hydrogen stakeholders, where recent strategic priorities established in this Progress Report could be discussed and working groups could report on progress or key findings from studies.

In 2024, the Steering Committee of the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation Framework will update the structure of the strategy’s working groups and task forces, ensuring that the framework in place can build upon the lessons learned since 2020 and advance the strategic priorities identified in this Progress Report.


This Progress Report confirms that hydrogen continues to have a role to play in meeting global energy needs in the context of energy security, energy transition and the broader climate imperative. Canada’s low-carbon hydrogen produced for export will contribute to sustainable green job creation, international energy security, and global emissions reductions. In Canada’s net-zero climate objectives, low-carbon hydrogen will supplement electrification and other carbon mitigation approaches by helping to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors where electrification alone would be less economical or technically unfeasible.

The work of the past few years has enabled the Canadian low-carbon-hydrogen ecosystem to make progress in many areas and has helped put into focus the areas that require attention in the coming years. Going forward, Canadian governments, industry, non-governmental organizations and academia should continue to work towards the vision set out in the Hydrogen Strategy.


I. Hydrogen production project highlights

With up to 80 low-carbon production projects having been announced across Canada since 2020, there is significant interest in the development of this clean energy fuel.

This appendix highlights known low-carbon hydrogen production projects in Canada that are of regional or national significance. Combined, they paint a picture of technological innovation, regional strengths, Indigenous participation and how Canada’s various abundant feedstocks are influencing market development.

Not all announced or known hydrogen production projects are listed; projects where the low-carbon hydrogen would be supplied to a dedicated end use, such as for an industrial facility, biofuels refinery, transportation refuelling or electricity generating station, can be found in the section describing end-use projects.

Atlantic Canada

New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island

EverWind Fuels: Point Tupper Hydrogen and Ammonia Production and Export Project

A planned electrolytic production plant located on an existing industrial site in Point Tupper, Nova Scotia, which offers the deepest ice-free shipping terminal on the North American Atlantic coast. The plant would produce about 1 million tonnes per year of low-carbon ammonia (converted from hydrogen) for export to global markets by 2026, to be powered by new onshore wind and solar resources, with initial production planned in 2025. Further expansion using offshore wind resources could enable production to be increased 10-fold in the future. EverWind Fuels has formed partnerships with the Membertou, Paqtnkek and Potlotek First Nations.

  • Current status: Provincial environmental assessment granted, with conditions, in February 2023; Phase 1 FEED complete
  • Funding: US$125 million debt facility loan from Export Development Canada
World Energy GH2: Project Nujio’qonik

The planned development of an electrolytic hydrogen production facility in Stephenville and 2 wind farms in Port au Port and Codroy, Newfoundland and Labrador. Through a phased development approach, Project Nujio’qonik (pronounced, “new-geo-ho-neek”) intends to reach initial production by 2026, with potential to expand to over 3 GW of onshore wind energy capacity to power the production of up to 250,000 tonnes per year of hydrogen, to be converted to ammonia for global export.

The project has a MOU partnership with the Qalipu First Nation, which is working with project partner DOB Academy of the Netherlands to develop a training institute offering renewable energy programming with the College of the North Atlantic to provide opportunities for band members. The project has received an investment of $50 million from South Korea’s SK Ecoplant. World Energy GH2 has acquired the deep-water access Port of Stephenville to support the project.

  • Current status: Selected for exclusive rights to Crown land; provincial environmental assessment approved
  • Funding: US$95 million debt facility loan from Export Development Canada
ABO, Braya Renewables: Toqlukuti’k Wind and Hydrogen Production Plant and Wind Farm

A partnership between ABO, Braya Renewables and the Miawpukek First Nation for the development of an onshore wind farm in the isthmus region of Newfoundland and Labrador to support the production of low-carbon hydrogen, initially for use in Braya’s biofuels refinery in Come by Chance and subsequently for export. The project is targeting the development of 5,000 MW of wind capacity. The first phase, supported by Braya’s hydrogen demand, is expected to be operational in 2027 to 2029, with production scaling through 2028 to 2029 to support export.

  • Current status: Selected for exclusive rights to Crown land; pending provincial environmental assessment
  • Funding: $49 million from the Strategic Innovation Fund and $37 million from Clean Fuels Fund

A partnership between Liberty Utilities and Nu:Ionic for the development of a 2.4 tonnes per day hydrogen production system utilizing Nu:ionic proprietary Microwave Catalytic Reformers, located in New Brunswick. The project marks the first application of the technology using microwave energy to decarbonize natural gas with electrified reforming. The technology includes a carbon capture system to produce liquid carbon dioxide for reuse or sequestration. Liberty will use the facility to pilot the blending of hydrogen into natural gas. Hydrogen produced will also be used in the heavy-duty and mass transportation sector.

  • Current status: Memorandum of understanding signed in August 2023
Port of Belledune: Green Hydrogen and Ammonia Production Hub

Planned development of 200 MW electrolysis production facility, with planned expansion in future to support global export. The project is part of the Port of Belledune’s planned Green Energy Hub, expected to be a driver for the green economy in Northern New Brunswick. The facility could be commissioned as early as 2027.

As part of the plan, the Port and Cross River are exploring the use of ARC Clean Technology advanced small modular reactors to provide a source of energy for expanded hydrogen production and for other industries at the port. The Port has signed MOUs with Niedersachsen Ports in Wilhemshaven, Germany and the Port of Hamburg, to collaborate on shipments of clean fuels and green products. It has also entered a Relationship, Engagement and Consultation Protocol with Pabineau and Eel River Bar (Ugpi’ganjig) First Nations and Mi’gmawe’l Tplu’taqnn Inc. (MTI).

  • Current status: Agreement in principle reached between the Port of Belledune and Cross River Infrastructure in August 2022

Central Canada

Manitoba, Ontario, Québec

Air Liquide: Bécancour

Air Liquide’s 20 MW proton exchange membrane electrolyser in Bécancour, Québec, began operating in January 2021, and was the largest electrolyser plant in the world at that time. It produces 3,000 tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually, and relative to traditional hydrogen production processes, avoids 27,000 tonnes of annual GHG emissions. The facility uses four 5 MW HyLYZER 1000-30 units developed by the Canadian company Hydrogenics, and benefits from clean electricity from Hydro-Québec and proximity to industrial and transport markets.

  • Current status: Operational as of January 2021
Hy2Gen/Yara/EPC: Courant

A 300 MW electrolyser project is under consideration, in collaboration with the Port de Baie Comeau, Québec, and the port’s plans to explore the use of green energy in its industrial zone. Low-carbon hydrogen produced by the project will be used domestically to produce ammonium nitrate for the explosives market.

  • Current status: Early planning and feasibility
TES Canada: Project Mauricie

A $4 billion, 1,000 MW electrolyser project using dedicated wind and solar energy located in the Vallèe de la transition énergétique, which will be capable of producing 70,000 tonnes of low carbon hydrogen annually. It will aim to reduce annual GHG emissions by 800,000 tonnes, by dedicating one third of its hydrogen to decarbonizing long-haul transportation, with the remainder producing electric renewable natural gas.

  • Current status: Targeting to be in operation by 2028
Bruce Power: Hydrogen Production from Excess Energy

Planned exploration of opportunities to use excess power from the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station in Ontario to produce hydrogen. The project will be conducted in partnership with the Hydrogen Business Council and is part of Ontario’s Low-Carbon Hydrogen strategy.

  • Current status: Feasibility study is underway by companies within the Clean Energy Frontier region of Bruce, Grey and Huron counties
Charbone: Selkirk

The City of Selkirk, Manitoba has signed a MOU with Charbone for a proposed electrolysis facility that would be powered by renewable energy and could supply up to 200 kg of low-carbon hydrogen to Manitoba and beyond by as early as 2024. Charbone has leased 4.6 acres of land west of Selkirk’s decommissioned wastewater treatment plan for the facility.

  • Current status: Environmental permitting, planning, and feasibility

Western Canada

Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan

Air Products: Net-Zero Hydrogen Energy Complex

Air Products is currently building a $1.6 billion net-zero hydrogen energy complex in Edmonton, Alberta, that uses autothermal reforming technology (ATR) to produce 140,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year from natural gas and a carbon capture process with a greater than 90% carbon capture rate.

The facility is expected to be commissioned in 2024 and serve as an anchor facility for supplying low-carbon hydrogen to end-use projects across the Edmonton Region Hydrogen hub as well as to produce renewable diesel. It includes plans for 35-tonne-per-day hydrogen liquefaction, to be used in the transportation market, a large-scale refuelling station and a 100% hydrogen-fuelled power generation unit, capable of supplying excess power to the Alberta grid.

  • Current status: Construction underway
  • Funding: $300 million from Strategic Innovation Fund – Net-Zero Accelerator, $160 million from Alberta petrochemicals Incentive Program and $15 million from Emissions Reduction Alberta Shovel-Ready Challenge
Ekona: Methane Pyrolysis Reactor

Ekona is developing a novel methane pyrolysis solution that converts natural gas into hydrogen and solid carbon, significantly reducing GHG emissions. Ekona’s patented technology is low-cost, scalable and solves the carbon fouling issues typical of most methane pyrolysis platforms. Ekona is developing its methane pyrolysis reactor at its Burnaby test facility in British Columbia and will be deploying a 1 tonne per day pilot plant in Alberta in 2024 for field demonstration and operational testing.

  • Current status: Planning and feasibility
McLeod Lake Indian Band: Tse’khene Energy Transition Hub

An Indigenous-led $7 billion energy transition hub that will include electrolysis and natural gas with carbon capture-derived hydrogen production projects, located 80 to 90 kilometres north of Prince George on the Kerry Lake East Indian Reserve. Once fully developed, it will also include a straddle plant and be one of the largest Indigenous energy projects in Canada.

  • Current status: MOU signed with the Government of British Columbia, October 2023 (construction anticipated to begin in 2024, initial operation by 2026)
Fort Nelson First Nation and Hydrogen Naturally: Bright Green Production Plant

Fort Nelson First Nation and Hydrogen Naturally are leading what may be Canada’s first biomass gasification hydrogen plant in British Columbia. The plant would have a capacity of 20,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year, using pellets from fibres controlled by Fort Nelson First Nation. It would turn low value carbon-rich forestry residuals into hydrogen while permanently sequestering the carbon, creating a carbon-negative fuel producer.

  • Current status: First stage of pre-project planning
HTEC: Burnaby and North Vancouver Plants

In June 2023, HTEC broke ground on a 2-tonne-per-day production project in Burnaby that will be the province’s first at-scale electrolyser dedicated to fuelling zero-emission FCEVs, in support of the province’s zero-emission vehicle mandate. HTEC has also announced plans to construct a 15-tonne-per-day liquefaction facility in North Vancouver to serve the medium and heavy-duty transportation sector, targeted to be operational by 2026. This facility will be able to provide fuel for up to 60 heavy-duty hydrogen trucks or 4,000 hydrogen passenger cars, which could reduce carbon emissions by up to 11,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.

  • Current status: Burnaby project under construction, expected to be operational by late 2024
  • Funding: $5 million from PacifiCan Business Scale-up and Productivity funding; $3 million from NRCan Zero Emissions Vehicle Infrastructure Program; $16.5 million from British Columbia Clean Energy and Major Projects Office
Pembina Pipeline: Low Carbon Complex

Pembina Pipeline plans to develop a low-carbon ammonia production facility situated beside its Redwater Complex in the Alberta Industrial Heartland near Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. The project aims to use natural gas with CCUS to produce 85 kilotonnes per annum of low-carbon hydrogen that will be converted to low-carbon ammonia and transported to Japan and Asian markets.

  • Current status: MOU signed with Marubeni Corporation in May, 2023 (pre-FEED work is expected to be completed in early 2024).

II. Provincial and territorial progress

British Columbia

British Columbia is well positioned to grow its hydrogen sector to meet the increasing demand for low-carbon solutions locally and around the world. Given its proximity to export markets, skilled labour force, abundant supply of natural gas, renewable energy and geological advantages, BC is well positioned to supply a significant portion of low-carbon hydrogen to the global market.

British Columbia released its hydrogen strategy in 2021 and has established the BC Hydrogen Office within the Clean Energy and Major Projects Office, which functions as the primary government liaison for provincial matters related to clean energy and major projects, including hydrogen. In addition, the BC Centre for Innovation and Clean Energy (CICE) was established in October 2021 to support the development of BC-based energy technologies, including low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage. CICE provides early-stage opportunities for funding and project delivery.

The province’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard sets emissions intensity reduction targets for transportation fuels, which increase annually from 20% in 2023 to 30% by 2030 in a linear manner. Fuel suppliers receive credits when they supply fuels with carbon intensity below the targets and can use or buy credits to offset fuels that are above the targets. Overall, credits and debits must add up to zero, otherwise the supplier will be subject to a penalty for non-compliance, which has been increased to $600 per tonne as of 2023.

Multiple funding initiatives have been established in the province to support decarbonization projects, including the CleanBC Industry Fund (which is funding the Hazer and FortisBC Energy methane pyrolysis project for hydrogen production and the Innovative Clean Energy Fund) which will support the development of codes and standards for hydrogen.

Through the Indigenous Clean Energy Opportunities partnership, the province is working with the First Nations Energy and Mining Council to identify opportunities for Indigenous groups to participate in the hydrogen sector. In addition to the province’s work with Indigenous groups, the government continues to action priorities that are key to growing BC’s hydrogen sector.

The British Columbia Regional Energy and Resource Table was launched in June 2022. Through this regional table, the Government of Canada, the Government of British Columbia, and the First Nations Leadership Council are committed to an inclusive dialogue to develop a shared understanding among governments and First Nations in British Columbia on regional growth opportunities and potential actions to advance them. Together, partners have agreed to accelerate progress in 6 areas of opportunity, including clean fuels and hydrogen, which will significantly enhance British Columbia’s competitive advantage in clean energy and the natural resources sectors.

In 2023, the British Columbia Energy Regulator’s role expanded to include the manufacturing, storage and distribution of hydrogen, methanol and ammonia, along with carbon capture and storage.


Alberta released its Hydrogen Roadmap in November 2021, where it highlighted the use of hydrogen to decarbonize multiple sectors, including residential and commercial heating, power generation and storage, industrial processes, transportation, and the export market. In its strategy, hydrogen costs in Alberta from SMR or ATR with CCS were estimated at below $2 per kg in 2020 and below average global cost averages for these processes.

Alberta is home to the Hydrogen Centre of Excellence, led by Alberta Innovates. Alberta’s government invested $50 million to create the centre which represents a funding program, testing and service facilities, and a forum for facilitating partnerships to de-risk hydrogen technology and innovation development. The centre recently announced more than $20 million, along with $9.4 million from NRCan, to support 18 new projects to advance innovation in hydrogen use throughout the province. This includes projects related to hydrogen production, storage, and transportation. An additional round of $50 million (and $5 million from NRCan) in funding through Alberta Innovates and Emissions Reductions Alberta was announced in August 2023, to support researchers, innovators, companies and industry to develop technologies critical to advancing the Province’s Hydrogen Roadmap.

In January 2023, Alberta received a federal investment of $9.74 million through Prairies Economic Development Canada to develop its hydrogen supply chain, with $3.74 million being directed towards Edmonton Global. The organization will host international events and other workshops to promote and support foreign investment in the local hydrogen supply chain, as well as support the development of the labour market. Part of this mandate is being implemented through the Hydrogen Innovation Accelerator, which supports the growth of small and medium sized businesses. Another $3 million of the funds will be allocated towards fuelling equipment for heavy-duty trucking and a hydrogen fuelling station in Calgary, and the remaining $3 million for testing facilities of hydrogen fuelling infrastructure. The Hydrogen Centre of Excellence has leveraged the $3 million with an additional 10.3 million to augment testing facilities and services at InnoTech Alberta and C-FER Technologies.

From a regulatory perspective, the Alberta Utilities Commission conducted a public inquiry into hydrogen blending in gas distribution systems, publishing its findings in June 2022. The Commission made a number of observations, including amendments to Alberta’s Gas Utilities Act and Gas Distribution Act to enable hydrogen blending, as well as allowing an initial maximum blending threshold of 20% by volume, but also noted that pilot projects should start at a lower blend level.

The province has large potential for both carbon storage and hydrogen storage. Projects are underway to evaluate the implications of storing hydrogen in salt caverns previously used for natural gas. In March 2022, the province selected 6 project proposals in the Alberta industrial heartland region, near Edmonton, for initial assessment of geologic carbon storage capabilities. The Atlas Carbon Sequestration Hub, developed by Shell and ATCO, is one of the 6 projects and could have potential storage capacity of 7 to 10 Mt of CO2 annually. The existing Quest Carbon Capture and Storage project has stored 7 Mt of CO2 since 2015. In October 2022, the Government of Alberta selected 19 additional proposals to develop carbon storage hubs in the province.

Alberta has implemented the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (TIER), which was amended in early 2023 to include facilities that import more than 10,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year. Under this regulation, large emitters are subject to emissions reduction benchmarks and an emission credit scheme. The Alberta Petrochemicals Incentive Program (APIP) supports the growth of facilities that use natural gas in their production processes. Clean hydrogen production projects from natural gas with carbon capture are eligible to apply for funding under the program. The Air Products Net-Zero Hydrogen Complex recently qualified for an APIP grant of $161 million.


In May 2022, the Government of Saskatchewan, along with industry partners Federated Co-operatives Limited (FCL) and Whitecap Resources Inc., announced support for The Transition Accelerator and the Saskatchewan Research Council to conduct a hydrogen hub foundation study for the Regina-Moose Jaw Industrial Corridor. The report is expected to be released before the end of 2023.

Whitecap Resources and FCL have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to use Whitecap’s expertise in CCUS to assist FCL in achieving reduced emissions targets in Saskatchewan. The MOU contemplates the capture of CO2 by FCL from the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina and the Co-op Ethanol Complex near Belle Plaine, Saskatchewan, which would then be compressed, transported, and sequestered by Whitecap. The captured CO2 will be sequestered by Whitecap in the Weyburn Unit CO2 enhanced oil recovery project or injected into a new saline CO2 storage facility.

The construction of new CO2 infrastructure in Saskatchewan would create a carbon hub in the Regina-Moose Jaw area enabling the production of lower carbon intensity hydrogen production for use in other applications.

The Government of Saskatchewan’s focus has been on supporting CO2 infrastructure and the advancement and development of CCUS technology. Saskatchewan released CCUS Priorities in September 2021, where key actions were highlighted to advance private sector investment in CCUS. Recognizing that increasing the potential availability of CCUS hubs and facilities will encourage further decarbonization and the development of low-carbon hydrogen production.


Manitoba is currently developing its own Hydrogen Economic Development Strategy, to update preliminary assessments conducted in 2003. Manitoba has a natural abundance of hydroelectricity for the production of low-carbon hydrogen, and existing rail infrastructure that can be used to transport hydrogen and its derivatives, as well as existing international export capacity at the Port of Churchill.

New Flyer Group Inc. is an internationally recognized transit and coach manufacturer based in Winnipeg. New Flyer develops cutting edge hydrogen fuel cell buses and has an existing market across North America. The company is currently looking at an expansion opportunity regarding the development of refuelling station infrastructure in support of its fuel cell buses; infrastructure has been a key challenge in the rollout of these vehicles in Manitoba. In January 2023, Winnipeg Transit put in a firm order for a number of fuel cell buses from New Flyer, to arrive by 2024. The contract includes an option for an additional 150 buses and was supported by the federal Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program. The transit agency is also planning to run a pilot program for an on-site hydrogen electrolyser and dispenser to support the vehicles.


Ontario released its Low-Carbon Hydrogen Strategy in April 2022, which defines its objectives and actions for low-carbon hydrogen use. Ontario sees important uses of hydrogen in the industrial sector, natural gas blending for power or heating and grid-regulation services.

In 2023, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) of Ontario launched the $15 million Hydrogen Innovation Fund, to investigate, evaluate and demonstrate how low-carbon hydrogen technologies can be integrated into the grid to balance and strengthen Ontario’s reliable electricity system. The IESO announced the recipients in November 2023 for funding that will focus on opportunities for hydrogen to serve as a clean alternative fuel for transportation and other end uses.

Notable projects include:

  • Emerald Energy from Waste Inc. in Brampton is receiving $3.0 million for a new facility that will produce hydrogen from waste to test its ability to provide electricity grid services and supply hydrogen to heavy duty vehicles
  • Atura Power is receiving $4.1 million to blend up to 15% hydrogen with natural gas to produce electricity at Halton Hills Generating Station (HHGS), making it the largest electricity-based, grid-connected, low-carbon hydrogen blending project in Canada’s history
  • Western University is receiving $0.5 million to develop a demonstration site, which will test solar-generated hydrogen and biogas-generated hydrogen to assess the environmental benefits of each

The IESO is also piloting an interruptible rate structure, which would offer large electricity consumers reduced electricity rates in exchange for agreeing to reduce consumption during system or local reliability events.

In addition, the IESO is to report back to the Minister of Energy by September 15, 2023, on a plan to design and implement an interruptible rate pilot that is tailored for hydrogen producers in Ontario that employ electrolysers. This is part of the strategy’s plan to assess how new electricity rate structures could incentivize low-carbon hydrogen production projects.

There are a few production projects planned and under analysis in the province, which are co-located with renewable energy supply or with industrial demand. For example, the Atura Power Niagara Hydrogen Centre will utilize excess hydroelectric resources to produce low-carbon hydrogen with a 20 MW electrolyser. Hydrogen is being considered by ArcelorMittal Dofasco as part of the conversion of its steel production plant in Hamilton to phase out the use of coal.

Finally, hydrogen may be used in transportation, for example, in hydrogen fuel cell buses. Two hydrogen bus pilot projects are being developed in Brampton and Mississauga. In Sarnia-Lambton, low-carbon hydrogen is under discussion to serve the industrial sector, such as for petroleum refining and production of ammonia for fertilizers.


Québec released its Green Hydrogen and Bioenergy Strategy in 2022. Hydrogen will be prioritized for uses where other decarbonization options are limited: substitution of high-carbon hydrogen and other uses in industrial processes (iron, steel and petroleum), in the production of derivatives like methanol and synthetic fuels, use of hydrogen in heavy transport to complement direct electrification and as part of regional clean energy hubs. Québec is primarily targeting the use of hydrogen for domestic decarbonization, with exports looked upon as a long-term objective.

While Québec has an abundance of clean and affordable hydro-electricity, the grid will need to be able to support a number of increasing demands in the future, such as charging of personal electric vehicles or industrial operations. As of November 2023, Hydro-Québec had received new interconnection requests totalling 30,000 MW. The significant size of requests motivated the provincial government to pass Bill 2, which included the reduction of the cut-off for interconnection requests that Hydro-Québec could not refuse from 50 MW to 5 MW. The government will retain the authority to select projects for interconnection.

Within this context, the government is carefully considering multiple requests for electrolysis projects to ensure the grid will be able to support these significant loads given competing requests for interconnection. Other use cases where direct electrification may be difficult are in the transportation sector and include heavy-duty vehicles, the rail, maritime and aviation sectors—whether as pure hydrogen or derived fuels.

New Brunswick

New Brunswick released its Hydrogen Roadmap in early 2024. The roadmap is a five-year plan outlining 13 actions, using the province’s location, natural resources and existing capabilities, to develop the hydrogen industry and position New Brunswick as a leader in producing hydrogen for consumption domestically and abroad.

In New Brunswick, the province’s Climate Change Action Plan includes actions to encourage adoption of clean hydrogen as a pathway to decarbonization. In the fall of 2022, the New Brunswick Energy Secretariat was created to help lead the province’s energy vision, and in the fall of 2023, the province made amendments to legislation to allow large hydrogen producers to access clean electricity from producers outside of the Crown Corporation, NB Power.

Hydrogen is emerging as a potential large-scale opportunity for New Brunswick. With regional activity accelerating, the formation of the Atlantic Hydrogen Alliance is demonstrating the need for New Brunswick to become a strong voice in the region. While opportunities are in the early stages, there is significant movement in this cluster. With New Brunswick’s natural advantages in energy industry leadership, transportation infrastructure, and strategically positioned ports, New Brunswick is very well positioned to leverage this cluster as a key enabler to meeting 2050 targets while creating an investment ready environment.

The Government of New Brunswick has been very active in the promotion and development of Small Modular Nuclear Reactors and has worked extensively with large-scale wind proponents, all with a view to provide future hydrogen production facilities with clean energy feedstock. Coupled with these efforts, the province has started a Hydrogen Table with NRCan as part of NRCan’s Regional Energy and Resources Tables initiative. The province has also signed an international memorandum of understanding with the Czech Republic on energy cooperation and innovation that includes collaborating on hydrogen production, technology and related products and services.Footnote 7

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia released its Green Hydrogen Action Plan in December 2023. The plan includes 7 goals and 23 actions to help develop the sector in alignment with the province’s climate change goals. It will support both domestic use and export of electrolytic hydrogen and is focused on safety, a strong and skilled workforce, research and innovation and opportunities for public engagement.

Since 2020, wind-based hydrogen export project announcements have been the major story for Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia has been active in updating its regulatory regime to enable major export projects, including by passing 4 pieces of legislation relating to the use of hydrogen in the province. The first amends the Electricity Act by expanding the definition of a wholesale customer (formerly only applied to Nova Scotia Power and municipal utilities) to include businesses producing hydrogen for domestic use in Nova Scotia to enable them to purchase electricity from any competitive supplier. This bill also gave the government the ability to create a new hydrogen innovation program to support industry and ensure it is aligned with provincial climate goals. The second amends several pieces of legislation, including:

  • expanding the scope of the Underground Hydrocarbons Storage Act to include hydrogen, ammonia, carbon sequestration and compressed air energy storage
  • including pipelines built for hydrogen or hydrogen blends in the Pipeline Act
  • allowing the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board to also consider hydrogen as part of a gas distribution system under the Gas Distribution Act

Furthermore, Nova Scotia has made changes in environmental assessment (EA) regulation activities to simplify the process, reduce the administrative burden and enable major hydrogen projects to meet EA criteria more quickly. Further changes to the Electricity Act in March 2023 allow and encourage innovative types of storage, which could open opportunities for hydrogen. In addition, amendments to the Construction Projects Labour Relations Act were made to include large-scale hydrogen electrolysis projects to provide increased investment certainty. The province is currently working on a Clean Investment Plan, which would include support for hydrogen projects.

There are 2 hydrogen export production projects in advanced planning stages in the province by EverWind Fuels and Bear Head Energy. Both plan on using wind for hydrogen production via electrolysis and to convert hydrogen to ammonia for export to the European market. EverWind Fuels is most advanced in the regulatory process. It passed environmental assessment for phase 1 (with conditions) in early 2023, and EverWind has indicated they could begin operations by 2025 or early 2026. Bear Head Energy received environmental approval in April 2023 and plans on commissioning its ammonia production plant in late 2027. Both projects are located on coastline industrial sites, with access to deep-water ports. Due in part to the tremendous potential for offshore wind to provide a source of clean power to many hydrogen production projects, there remains considerable interest in the development of addition large-scale projects to produce a variety of hydrogen derivatives for both export and domestic use.

While developers are getting started with onshore wind, they will look to scale up using the abundant offshore wind resources off Nova Scotia’s coast. To help spur development, as part of its Green Hydrogen Action Plan, the province has set a target to offer seabed leases for 5,000 MW of offshore wind energy by 2030.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Text version

Map of the island pf Newfoundland showing areas of Crown land that were successful in the province's crown land bid process for wind projects. Areas demarked are along the southeast coast, central north coast, and southwest coast.

Figure 6: Newfoundland and Labrador Crown Land Successful Bidder Areas

Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador

The government of Newfoundland and Labrador released their Renewable Energy Plan in December 2021, which provides a sustainable long-term vision for Newfoundland and Labrador to maximize its renewable energy future. Newfoundland and Labrador has a wealth of resources and supporting characteristics that will position the province to competitively produce and export low-carbon hydrogen from electrolysis. These include abundant wind, water and land, a highly renewable grid, a skilled workforce, and a strategic location with numerous deep-sea ice-free ports along transcontinental shipping lanes and with proximity to Europe and the United States.

On August 23, 2022, the Canada-Germany Hydrogen Alliance was signed in Stephenville, Newfoundland and Labrador. The signing of the declaration in Stephenville highlights the significant potential of Newfoundland and Labrador’s renewable energy resources, in particular its wind resources and the opportunity to bring them to the global marketplace.

In September 2022, Newfoundland and Labrador signed a Declaration of Intent with Hamburg, Germany, on cooperation in the field of green hydrogen and hydrogen technologies. On May 9, 2023, at the World Hydrogen Summit, the province signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Port of Rotterdam to encourage the establishment of hydrogen supply chains to support Newfoundland and Labrador’s export of green hydrogen to the Netherlands, and onward to other parts of Europe. These agreements confirm that hydrogen for export represents an important economic opportunity for the province.

To support the significant global interest in Newfoundland and Labrador’s wind resources, the provincial government reviewed and lifted the wind moratorium policy in April 2022. On July 26, 2022, the province issued a call for Crown lands nominations for wind energy projects. Following a detailed assessment of 31 land nomination submissions, on December 14, 2022, the province launched a Crown land call for bids on approximately 1.7 million hectares of Crown lands for wind energy projects. Bids closed on March 23, 2023, and 24 bids were received from 19 companies. These bids went through a stage 1 review, including criteria such as the bidder’s experience and their financial capacity to plan, construct and operate the proposed project. Nine bids from 9 companies were approved to proceed to stage 2 review, which included a deeper examination of the bidder’s experience, the proposed project, and the project financing plan, as well as an examination of additional information on the electricity grid connection requirements, community and Indigenous engagement and benefits to the province.

On August 30, 2023, the province announced the completion of the call for bids. The 4 companies to receive Wind Application Recommendation Letters were announced as EverWind NL Company, Exploits valley Renewable energy Corporation, Toqlukuti’k Wind and Hydrogen Ltd. (ABO) and World Energy GH2 Inc.

The 4 companies now have the right to pursue the development of their project and can proceed through the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador’s Crown land application and approval process. The construction, operations and decommissioning phases of these 4 projects (ranging from 35 to 40 years) are anticipated to have an overall economic impact (GDP) of $206.2 billion and revenue to the province of $11.7 billion. Based on the plans for the 4 projects, peak employment is estimated at 11,694 full-time equivalents during construction. Total capital spend is estimated at $66.3 billion.

Projects will be required to have benefits plans with the province, including commitments to full and fair opportunity as well as a gender equity and diversity plan that outlines proactive measures for the inclusion of women and other under-represented groups.

Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut

In the Northwest Territories, the territorial government is considering a feasibility study to explore whether existing hydrogen technologies could work in the northern climate, and to better understand infrastructure costs and best ways to use low-carbon hydrogen. There is potential for hydrogen to be used as an energy carrier in fuel cells for clean energy production in remote communities. There are no hydrogen projects, studies or policies currently under consideration in the Yukon or Nunavut.

III. Detailed status of Hydrogen Strategy recommendations

This section provides an update of the 32 recommendations in the Hydrogen Strategy. The 32 recommendations were organized according to 8 pillars corresponding to the key challenges identified by the Hydrogen Strategy, and each recommendation was addressed to either governments (including federal and provincial governments), industry (including hydrogen producers and end users), utilities, Indigenous groups or organizations, academia and non-governmental organizations. The implementation status and rationale are based on consultations with those assigned responsibility for the recommendation.

Each of the recommendations is assigned a current implementation status, based on progress that took place during the “reporting period,” which spanned from January 2021 until August 2023. They have been evaluated by the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation Framework members based on a list of key implementation metrics. The statuses are:

  • Limited: Majority of recommendation’s metrics facing obstacles or limitations during the reporting period
  • Progressing: Implementation metrics partially fulfilled or plans/actions underway
  • On target: Sufficient quantities or majority of implementation metrics fulfilled

Tracking progress on the 32 Hydrogen Strategy recommendations

Strategic partnerships

Recommendation 1: Collaborate across multiple levels of government and with Indigenous groups through Intergovernmental Working Groups to establish priority areas for deployment and to share knowledge, best practices and lessons learned through early deployments.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 19 working groups (16 sectoral/themed, 3 oversight) established including governments, industry, utilities, academia
    • More than 80 working group meetings
    • 7 reports and studies completed
    • Ongoing inter-governmental meetings on policy and programs
    • Hydrogen workplans in 6 NRCan-FPT Regional Energy and Resource Tables

Recommendation 2: Expand public/private partnerships leveraging Canada’s innovative clean technology companies and world-leading hydrogen and fuel cell expertise to accelerate deployment projects across the value chain.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • New high-level public-private agreements with 7 governments
    • 9 MOU/Letters of Intent signed including 3 with First Nations

Recommendation 3: Foster cross-sector collaborations within domestic deployment hubs to show the economic and operational benefits of multiple applications operating as part of an integrated ecosystem.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Academia, Indigenous, NGOs
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Edmonton Region Hydrogen Hub established, with more than 25 projects
    • BC Lower Mainland Hydrogen Hub, with more than 50% of Canada’s existing hydrogen companies, 2 University hub projects
    • 7 hub plans across 6 provinces
    • Hubs concept updated to include corridors

Recommendation 4: Leverage international collaborations and pursue synergistic international initiatives to attract foreign direct investment and accelerate opportunities for Canada in global markets.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 17 projects with international stakeholders
    • Approximately $1 billion in proposed equity investments and other financing
    • Agreements in place for direct foreign investments in projects from Japan, South Korea
    • Canada-Netherlands MOU
    • Canada-Germany Joint Declaration of Intent to establish a Hydrogen Alliance and a transatlantic energy corridor, and MOU to secure early market access
    • Canada-US commitment to explore cross-border hubs and regional standards

De-Risking Investments

Recommendation 5: Implement long-term policies that create hydrogen demand certainty and de-risk the private sector investments needed to establish supply and distribution infrastructure.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Revised Nationally Determined Contribution
    • Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit established
    • Carbon Pollution Pricing
    • Clean Fuels Regulations set
    • BC: CleanBC Industry Fund
    • BC: ZeroEmissions Vehicles Act 100% light-duty sales by 2035

Recommendation 6: Establish multi-year programming as well as a clean and long-term regulatory environment to support early production and end-use projects, including support to assess the feasibility of projects.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Revised Nationally Determined Contribution
    • Carbon Pollution Pricing
    • Clean Fuels Regulations set
    • Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit established
    • $315 million Strategic Innovation Fund Investments
    • $300 million Clean Fuels Fund contributions for 10 H2 production projects
    • Target of 45 Hydrogen refuelling stations (ZEVIP/EVAFIDI); $22M in funding for selected stations to date
    • Hydrogen a target of $15 billion Canada Growth Fund mandate
    • 2 major codes and standards updates released
    • H2 CI thresholds established in CHITC, CFF
    • BC: Go Electric Program
    • BC: $474 thousand provided since 2021 to hydrogen demo/pilot project through BC Fast Pilot/Ignite Programs
    • BC: Clean Energy and Major Projects Office, $16.5 million to HTEC trucking pilot
    • ON: $15 million Hydrogen Innovation Fund
    • No H2 carbon intensity threshold targets, no specific hydrogen production or vehicle targets or mandates

Recommendation 7: Develop regional deployment hubs to demonstrate, validate and implement business cases across the full value chain, from production and distribution to end use.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 2 hub-based projects and 7 hub plans across 6 provinces
    • Indigenous co-chairing of Edmonton Regional Hub

Recommendation 8: Facilitate co-funding opportunities, leveraging multiple levels of government and the private sector.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit established
    • $315 million Strategic Innovation Fund Investments
    • $300 million Clean Fuels Fund contributions for 10 H2 production projects; availability of Indigenous stream
    • Target of 30 Hydrogen stations within $680 million ZEVIP investment and 15 stations in $96 million EVAFIDI; $22 million selected to date
    • Hydrogen a key target of $15 billion Canada Growth Fund
    • $18 million from PacifiCan for 4 BC projects
    • $14 million from PrairiesCan in AB H2 ecosystem
    • AB: APIP, TIER funding
    • BC: CleanBC Industry Fund
    • ON: $15 million Hydrogen Innovation Fund


Recommendation 9: Develop strategic fundamental research priorities where Canada can sustainably excel and provide economic value; set technology performance and cost goals.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 2 major study announcements in academia
    • 7 reports and studies completed through WG collaboration
    • BC: New research centre at UBC
    • AB: Hydrogen Centre of Excellence established
    • AB: $20 million for 18 innovation projects

Recommendation 10: Establish dedicated funding for sustained RD&D to ensure Canada retains its leadership position in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • NRCan $155 million* Clean Growth Program
    • NRCan $319 million* CCUS funding
    • NRCan $53 million * Clean Fuels and Industrial Fuel Switching
    • NRCan $50 million* per year Federal Lab Funding
    • AB: $20 million for 18 innovation projects via Hydrogen Centre of Excellence
    • AB: More than $106 million for technology funding through Emissions Reduction Alberta and Alberta Innovates
    • BC: $35 million* (more than $70 million Federal) to Center for Innovation and Clean Energy
    • BC: Go Electric Advanced Research & Commercialization Program $1.3 million for 11 H2 projects
    • BC: $6.9 million provided to H2 projects/studies through Innovative Clean Energy / BC Knowledge Development Fund
    • ON: $15 million Hydrogen Innovation Fund

*Select projects include H2

Recommendation 11: Leverage expertise in academia, government labs, and private-sector labs to create regional research hubs and encourage mission-oriented approaches to research, development and pilot deployments.

  • Responsibility: Industry
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • AB: Edmonton Regional Hub active
    • AB: Southeast Alberta, Calgary Region hub studied
    • ON: Sarnia-Lambton Hub study
    • BC: SFU, UBC Hub Projects
    • AB: $20 million for 18 innovation projects

Recommendation 12: Foster collaboration between federal labs, industry, and academia as well as international partners, by supporting consortium-based projects for fundamental research and by coordinating reviews and information sharing.

  • Responsibility: Industry, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Member for 3 IEA H2 Technology Collaboration Programs (H2 TCP, Advanced Fuel Cells, Hybrid and Electric Vehicles)
    • Member for Mission Innovation Clean Hydrogen Mission
    • AB: $20 million for 18 innovation projects

Codes and Standards

Recommendation 13: Update, harmonize and recognize codes and standards (including the Canadian Hydrogen Installation Code) to enable deployments and facilitate new technology and infrastructure adoption in early markets.

  • Responsibility: Industry, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Canada Hydrogen Installation Code updated
    • 22 hydrogen codes, standards and technical specifications developed by CSA Group
    • 14 research projects/discussion papers launched by CSA Group
    • More than 80 standards impacted by CSA decision clarifying 5% hydrogen blending in natural gas covered by existing tests and certification

Recommendation 14: Establish a codes and standards working group, which includes inter-provincial Authorities Having Jurisdiction representatives, to share lessons learned and identify gaps in codes and standards.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Academia, SDOs
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • C&S WG established and prioritization of codes and standards gaps in progress
    • Canadian C&S roadmap publication under development

Recommendation 15: Develop performance-based standards versus prescriptive, and ensure hydrogen is not excluded from broader codes, standards, and regulations due to restrictive language.

  • Responsibility: Governments, SDOs
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • C$50M funding committed to research for C&S development
    • Bi-National Standard (Canada and U.S.) entitled “Hydrogen Production Intensity Quantification and Verification” under development by CSA Group and the Bureau de normalisation du Québec

Recommendation 16: Facilitate Canadian leadership and participation in international standard and certification efforts (for example, development of global carbon intensity metrics, blending levels for hydrogen in natural gas systems), simplifying international trade.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, SDOs
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Canada contributed to the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (IPHE) publication and seed document for an ISO standard to determine Greenhouse Gas Emissions of hydrogen production
    • Canada member of Executive Committee for IEA Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Program

Enabling Policies and Regulation

Recommendation 17: Ensure that governments at all levels consider hydrogen’s essential role in Canada’s energy future as they develop new policies, programs and regulations.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Clean Fuels Fund established
    • Clean Fuels Regulations set
    • Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit established
    • Hydrogen a key target of $15 billion Canada Growth Fund
    • 6 Provincial Strategies published
    • Maritimes regional blueprint (feasibility study) released and New Brunswick’s Hydrogen Roadmap in development
    • SK, MB regional blueprints under consideration

Recommendation 18: Encourage governments to modernize and update existing policies, programs, and regulations to facilitate growth of domestic hydrogen production and end use.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Canada Infrastructure Bank mandate updated
    • ON: Created a roadmap towards regulating CCS
    • BC: Zero Emissions Vehicle Act
    • BC: Updated Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Clean Energy) Regulation to include hydrogen
    • BC: Hydro Clean Industry and Innovation Rate
    • BC: New Energy Framework established Clean Energy and Major Projects Office to fast-track clean energy investment
    • BC: regulatory mapping study, hydrogen station permitting guidebook
    • NB: Amendments to legislation to allow large hydrogen producers access to clean electricity outside of Crown Corporation
    • NS: Amendments to electricity and pipelines legislation

Recommendation 19: Ensure hydrogen is part of integrated clean energy roadmaps at national and provincial/territorial levels.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Inclusion in Emissions Reduction Plan
    • Inclusion in Budget 2023 plan for a Clean Economy
    • Part of Roadmap to Net-Zero Carbon Concrete by 2050
    • 6 Provincial Strategies published
    • Hydrogen workplans in 6 NRCan-FPT Regional Energy and Resource Tables

Recommendation 20: Establish technology-neutral, performance-based standards to define a hydrogen carbon-intensity threshold. Establish tiered, time-based requirement for renewable hydrogen content in government-supported projects.

  • Responsibility: Governments
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • CHITC, CFF, CFR each include carbon intensity thresholds relevant to the policy mechanisms
    • CFF, ZEVIP including targeted hydrogen content in the programs
    • BC: Carbon Intensity of Different Hydrogen Production Methods Report


Recommendation 21: Support community engagement and outreach where deployment HUBs are established.

  • Responsibility: Industry, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Qalipu First Nation – DOB Academy offshore wind training agreement
    • Indigenous co-chairing of Edmonton Regional Hub
    • AB: 5000 Hydrogen Vehicle Challenge
    • BC: Indigenous Clean Energy Opportunities partnership explores opportunities for First Nations to participate in BC H2 sector
    • Alberta Motor Transport Association “Hydrogen Vehicle Road Show”

Recommendation 22: Establish awareness and outreach campaigns to educate government, industry, the public, and other important influencers about hydrogen safety, uses, and benefits.

  • Responsibility: Governments, NGOs
  • Implementation status: Limited
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Zero Emissions Vehicle Awareness Initiative: $5.2 million for 20 awareness initiatives focused on or including hydrogen
    • Canadian Hydrogen Safety Centre conceptual development announced
    • Seminar on Hydrogen Safety for Research and testing Facilities for federal employees
    • ATCO developing Operating Centre to demonstrate blending and technologies to public
    • BC: Indigenous Clean Energy Opportunities partnership explores opportunities for First Nations to participate in BC H2 sector

Recommendation 23: Develop a suite of tools and resources for early hydrogen markets to help end users quantitatively evaluate hydrogen as an option for their operations. Host the tools and resources through a central, government-run website.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry
  • Implementation status: Limited
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • StatsCan to include hydrogen production data in Renewable Fuels Survey starting in 2024
    • Fuel LCA Model developing hydrogen pathway carbon intensities
    • Canada participation as sub-task leader in IEA Hydrogen Technology Collaboration Program hydrogen certification task
    • H2GO Canada Inc. “Clean Hydrogen Production Assessment Tool” under development
    • BC: Northeast BC Geological Carbon Capture and Storage Atlas
    • NL: Renewable Energy Resources Data Hub
    • No current plans for central, government-run website

Recommendation 24: Support collaborations between industry and academia to develop hydrogen-specific curriculums to build awareness, interest, skills development and training to develop the next generation talent pool and prepare the labour force for new opportunities.

  • Responsibility: Industry, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • BC: New research centre at UBC
    • ON: Renewable Energy Conversion and Storage Research Project at Lambton College
    • Southern Alberta Institute of Technology ‘Clean Hydrogen: What Canadians Need to Know’ free massive open online course

Regional Blueprints

Recommendation 25: Facilitate the development of regional hydrogen blueprints, as a multi-level government collaborative effort, to identify specific opportunities and plans for hydrogen production and end use. Ensure federal participation to capture synergies with the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 6 provincial strategies released
    • 2 hub-based projects and 7 hub plans across 6 provinces
    • 3 export hub regional blueprints developed

Recommendation 26: Identify opportunities for the establishment of regional HUBs, comprised of projects along the entire value chain.

  • Responsibility: Academia, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 6 Regional Blueprints (Provincial Strategies) released
    • 2 hub-based projects and 7 hub plans across 6 provinces
    • 3 export hub regional blueprints developed
    • SFU, UBC Hydrogen Hubs proposed
    • Indigenous co-chairing of Edmonton Regional Hub

Recommendation 27: Include utilities, major industry from adjacent sectors, and clean-tech companies in development and implementation of blueprints.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Indigenous, Academia
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Utilities, industry, and cleantech sector included in all 7-hub plan and hub-based projects
    • Indigenous co-chairing of Edmonton Regional Hub

Recommendation 28: Identify areas for alignment and replication with other provinces/regions to facilitate and accelerate overall adoption.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Indigenous
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Provinces, hubs and regions actively sharing information to support and accelerate hub development

International Markets

Recommendation 29: Develop a strong Canadian brand, positioning Canada to be a global supplier of choice for low-carbon hydrogen and the technologies to use it.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Canada-Netherlands MOU
    • Canada-Germany Joint Declaration of Intent to establish a Hydrogen Alliance and a transatlantic energy corridor, and MOU to secure early market access
    • Canada-US commitment to explore cross-border hubs and regional standards
    • Two major projects receiving environmental assessment approval (EverWind Fuels, Bear Head)
    • Canada-Japan Energy and Policy Dialogue
    • High-Level Energy Dialogue with the EU
    • Canada co-lead in CEM Hydrogen Initiative
    • Canada-South Korea MOU
    • $50M South Korea investment in World Energy GH2
    • Five international ports MOUs (Belledune with Rotterdam, Hamburg, Wilhelmshaven; Halifax-Hamburg; NL-Rotterdam)
    • NL-Hamburg Joint Declaration of Intent
    • NB – Czech Republic MOU
    • Several Canadian ports in CEM Global Ports Coalition
    • Indigenous delegation inclusion in NRCan 2023 mission to Germany

Recommendation 30: Invest in infrastructure to connect Canadian supply to international markets, such as liquefaction assets for energy-dense hydrogen transport and hydrogen pipelines from western Canada to the US.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities
  • Implementation status: Limited
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • $71 million from National Trade Corridors Fund to Trigon Berth 2 Beyond Carbon project

Recommendation 31: Establish domestic flagship projects that highlight Canada’s expertise, attract investments into the domestic market and that can be replicated internationally.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Utilities, Academia, NGOs
  • Implementation status: Progressing
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • 2 new electrolyser projects operational (20 MW, 2.5 MW)
    • 3 projects completed environmental approval
    • 6 projects under construction/site preparation
    • More than 80 projects announced or initiated regulatory process

Recommendation 32: Leverage existing international fora (for example, Clean Energy Ministerial Hydrogen Initiative, G20, IEA) to showcase Canada’s leadership and advance new market opportunities.

  • Responsibility: Governments, Industry, Academia
  • Implementation status: On target
  • Rationale and project/initiative highlights:
    • Canada 1 of 5 co-leads on CEM Hydrogen Initiative
    • CEM Hubs initiative
    • G7 Hydrogen Pact
    • Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda on Hydrogen
    • Canada’s activity under International Partnership for Hydrogen Fuel Cells in the Economy
    • Continued activity at G7 and G20 fora
    • North American Leaders Summit (NALS) Canada-US-Mexico Declaration commitments on continental hydrogen integration

IV. Projections of hydrogen’s role in net-zero by 2050

For this Progress Report, Canada looked at 6 recent national modelling initiatives from a variety of organizations and is providing the range of possible outcomes for future hydrogen consumption, production, and exports.

Each modelling organization’s model works to compute certain outputs, like levels of different energy commodity production and use across different sectors, along with greenhouse gas emissions and investment cost levels. The models’ computations are affected by certain factors, such as policy stringency and technology costs, which must be set from the start. While some modellers (for example, Navius, Trottier, CCI) will compute values for all possible combinations of factors for which they have data, others (for example, CER, ESMIA) will pre-select a smaller number of scenarios that combine different, representative sets of assumptions. Some organizations use the same underlying computational model (such as NATEM or gTech CGE) to run their projections but use different inputs or assumptions to consider different scenarios.


Consumption and overall role in energy system

Up to 18% of Canada’s total energy use could be provided by low-carbon hydrogen by 2050. Most projections fall in the range of 3% to 12%. The scenarios that estimate supportive policies or cost reductions could be seen as a proxy for including the CHITC—these scenarios fall in the range of projecting 12% to 18%.

Text version

Bar graph showing projections of hydrogen consumption in million tonnes (Mt) in Canada in 2050 across 26 modelling scenarios, as well as as a percentage share of total energy end use. The bars are organized from left-to-right from lowest to highest projections, ranging from near 0 to up to approximately 13 Mt, and 18%.

Figure 7: Domestic low-carbon hydrogen consumption and share of end use in Canada in 2050.

The sector of the economy in which the models project low-carbon hydrogen to be used varies by model. Although the different modelling organizations use different economic sector groupings (that is, sector by sector comparison may not be exact), the results indicate differing roles for hydrogen in key sectors:

Text version

Bar graph where each bar shows the relative percentages in each modelling projection of which sectors the models project where hydrogen would be consumed in 2050, divided by feedstock, oil and refining, transport, industry, or buildings. There are 15 bars shown, with nearly half showing most hydrogen consumption would occur in the transportation sector, while two project nearly all consumption to occur in industry.

Figure 8: Hydrogen consumption in 2050, by sector.


Under net-zero-aligned scenarios, between 1.7 Mt and 6 Mt of hydrogen could be used in the transport sector in Canada in 2050, accounting for 12% to 35% of the transport sector’s energy use. This widely reflects hydrogen use in medium and heavy freight transport, as well as in marine, rail, and possibly aviation fuels where batteries would be too large, heavy and time-consuming to charge.


Many high temperature processes, such as cement, steel or glass making that are currently powered by natural gas can be fired by clean hydrogen; however, continued use of natural gas with on-site CCS or electrification are also options. Some industrial sectors, such as chemicals and fertilizers, can transition to cleaner hydrogen as a feedstock for their processes and iron and steel can replace traditional fossil-fuel feedstocks with hydrogen.

The relative technological viability, cost and potential targeted policy support will influence the extent to which competing options will be adopted to decarbonize the industry. Some scenarios anticipate a modest but still specialized role for hydrogen in the industry, with the fuel providing 5% of the sector’s energy needs in 2050. Other net-zero-aligned scenarios project a larger role at 2.4 Mt to 3 Mt or 6.5% of the sector’s energy use. Scenarios premised on specific policy measures to advance hydrogen use, see its use in industry reaching 3.6 Mt to 4 Mt or up to 18% of demand.


The buildings sector also has the potential to use hydrogen for decarbonization. Natural gas makes up over 40% of the energy used by the sector, primarily for space and water heating. While heat pumps powered by clean electricity are expected to make up the largest share of decarbonized space heating in residential buildings, utilities continue to consider decarbonization of the natural gas grid via low-carbon hydrogen blending or replacement as a means to achieve system-wide decarbonization of space and/or water heating. Applications may be more viable in the larger systems used in commercial or institutional buildings as seen in some net-zero-aligned scenarios. The CER’s net-zero scenarios project slightly over 2% of final energy demand in both the residential and commercial buildings sectors to be met by hydrogen in 2050, while the CCI expects that total hydrogen use in buildings could be 6% to 7.4%, all of which in commercial buildings.

ESMIA’s Supportive and Regional scenarios expect the largest absolute amount of hydrogen to be used in the buildings sector, at 1.2 Mt to 1.9 Mt in 2050, nearly all of which on the commercial side. This would be concentrated in cities that make a concerted effort to convert or build the necessary infrastructure to deliver and make use of pure hydrogen.

Net-zero scenarios tend to assume lower potential for hydrogen blending with natural gas for use in building heating relative to what Canadian utilities may actually deploy. These scenarios tend to favour pathways with limited use of unabated fossil fuels. This in turn could result in some models anticipating lower investments in blending infrastructure and the eventual lowering of costs in this area over time. Canada’s natural gas distribution industry is considering up to a 20% blend of hydrogen in its infrastructure, as noted in the reports completed by the Hydrogen Strategy Implementation Framework Natural Gas Working Group.

Production and exports

Many models assume that domestic consumption is met by (and, therefore, is equal to) domestic production, resulting in Canadian production reaching 0.6 Mt to 21 Mt under net-zero scenarios. Some of these scenarios do not consider potential exports, as this would require an extensive analysis of future global markets for hydrogen and was beyond the scope of these initiatives.

In contrast, some other models do consider and factor in export potential. This is done by assuming higher prices for hydrogen, which leads to Canadian production outstripping domestic demand and resulting in exports. For example, ESMIA’s Export scenario expects prices to increase to Can$3.50 per kg in 2030 and Can$5 per kg in 2050 (compared to remaining at Can$2 per kg in its Technology Neutral scenario). This results in production levels reaching 13.7 Mt to 21.1 Mt in 2050, with Canada exporting anywhere from a third to three quarters of the hydrogen it produces, or about 5 Mt to 10 Mt.

Figure 9 shows low-carbon hydrogen production projections, including production projected for exports compared to domestic consumption, for those scenarios that considered exports.

Text version

Bar graph showing projections of hydrogen production in Canada by 2050 from 13 modelling scenarios, in petajoules (left hand scale) and million tonnes of hydrogen (right hand scale). The bar garphs are divided in two colours, based on whether the production is destined for domestic consumption in Canada according to the model, or for global export markets. Only nine of the 13 scenarios consider exports. The bars are organized left-to-right lowest projection to highest, with the lowest being near zeroand the highest topping 2500 petajoules, or approximately 21 million tonnes, of which roughly 40% is destined for export.

Figure 9: Domestic low-carbon hydrogen production in 2050, for domestic consumption or export.

Only 3 of the 6 modelling organizations break down their estimates of production by method. Across these scenarios, the relative importance of production methods depends to a large degree on model design and assumptions:

  • Navius scenarios favour natural gas-based over electrolytic hydrogen, with natural gas-based hydrogen comprising half to two thirds of the hydrogen produced under any of its scenarios
    • This stems from favourable assumptions about the future costs of carbon capture technology. Navius also does not include biomass as a production method in its model
  • The CER’s scenarios favour electrolytic hydrogen, with it comprising half or more of production, followed by natural gas-based and some biomass-based hydrogen
    • This is driven by favourable assumptions about the future (high) availability of clean electricity and (low) cost electrolyser technology
  • ESMIA projects a large or even primary role for hydrogen from biomass, especially in its supportive scenario in which biomass constitutes nearly 80% of all hydrogen produced
    • This results from the model’s need for a source of net negative emissions (for example, biomass-based hydrogen) to compensate for net positive emissions elsewhere in the economy
    • Please refer to Figure 5: Low-carbon hydrogen production in 2050, by source
Revenue and employment

Much remains unknown about the future of hydrogen markets in Canada and globally, including prices and labour requirements. However, estimates from some of the modelling initiatives have been produced to provide an order of magnitude of the potential impact of a growing hydrogen sector.

Assuming an average price of $2 per kilogram (all $CAD), the value of hydrogen production in Canada could reach up to $11 billion in net-zero-aligned scenarios. Under supportive or export-focused scenarios, production could reach from $20 billion to over $42 billion.

For “middle of the road” net-zero-aligned scenarios, there could be anywhere from 5,500 to over 80,000 Canadians employed in the sector by 2050. These employment levels could reach from 100,000 to over 200,000 if the sector takes on a larger role in certain regions and/or for exports. For example, ESMIA’s export scenario projects 135,000 jobs in 2050.Footnote 8

Emissions reductions

The impacts of hydrogen production and use on Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions depend on the carbon intensity of the fuels that hydrogen displaces—typically diesel, natural gas or coal—as well as the method of production (for example, via natural gas, non-emitting electricity or biomass), end use or efficiency of carbon storage, if applicable.

Modelling studies suggest a potentially important role for hydrogen in reducing both domestic and global emissions:

  • ESMIA found that switching to low-carbon hydrogen could result in GHG reductions between 18 Mt (Neutral scenario) and 69 Mt (supportive scenario) in 2050
    • This corresponds to 3% and 10%, respectively, of Canada’s 2021 emissions
    • In ESMIA’s supportive scenario, hydrogen accounted for almost 9 Mt of annual GHG emissions reductions in the buildings sector in 2050, 34 Mt in industry, 21 Mt in transportation and 5 Mt in oil production and refining
    • ESMIA’s Export scenario projects overall reductions of 109 Mt, including 94 Mt of reductions occurring in other jurisdictions as Canadian low carbon hydrogen would displace fossil fuels.
  • In their Canada’s Net-Zero Future report, the Canadian Climate Institute found that fuel switching to hydrogen could account for between 17.1 Mt and 47.1 Mt of GHG emissions reductions in medium and heavy-duty vehicle transport in 2050, up to 9.5 Mt of emissions reductions in industry and up to 3.6 Mt of emissions reductions in buildings
    • Their model projects emissions reductions of up to 60.4 Mt across all sectors attributable to low-carbon hydrogen use in Canada, equivalent to 9% of Canada’s 2021 emissions
  • No scenario analyzed included estimates for the reduction of emissions for hydrogen use in emerging markets, such as in aviation, and only limited projections for reductions in other areas such as hydrogen used for electricity generation or marine applications
    • Given estimates from announced projects in Canada alone, such as Heartland Generation’s estimate of 5 Mt of annual reductions from replacing coal with low carbon hydrogen to generate electricity at the Battle River power plant (along with some reductions from other uses of CCS), this may be another area where the potential reductions from hydrogen use is underestimated in Canada’s current modelling initiatives
  • The Canada Energy Regulator’s Energy Futures 2023 assessed the emissions associated with hydrogen production in both of their net-zero scenarios
    • They found that the negative emissions from hydrogen produced with biomass would eventually more than offset the residual/uncaptured emissions from hydrogen produced from natural gas—that is, hydrogen production would become net negative emitting
    • Specifically, in 2050, the combined emissions from all types of hydrogen production (via electricity, biomass or natural gas with carbon capture) were projected to be negative 21 Mt in the Global Net Zero Scenario and negative 25 Mt in the Canada Net-Zero Scenario, which would amount to 3% to 4% of Canada’s 2021 emissions

Comparison to modelling undertaken for Hydrogen Strategy in 2020

Modelling results presented in this Progress Report vary from the results of modelling undertaken for the Hydrogen Strategy, which was designed to explore hydrogen’s maximum potential, rather than be part of integrated net-zero scenarios. The 2020 modelling included 2 scenarios:

  • The “incremental” scenario was a bottom-up, aggregated demand modelling based on a business-as-usual approach
    • It used known regulations and technologies and light policy measures, attempting to represent a slower adoption and the lower-end demand for hydrogen
  • The “transformative” scenario was an aggressive modelling approach that assumed the most favourable future regulations, technological developments and adoption growth rates to be in place to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050

In April 2022, the Commissioner for the Environment and Sustainable Development released an audit to determine whether Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada comprehensively assessed the role that hydrogen should play as a pathway to reach Canada’s climate commitments. The audit found that the Hydrogen Strategy favoured the transformative scenario over the incremental scenario, leading to overly optimistic assumptions that could jeopardize the achievement of the objectives of the Hydrogen Strategy.

The CESD’s recommendations included:

  • For NRCan to perform comprehensive bottom-up modelling, including to account for substitutional fuels and feasible deployment of technologies and supporting infrastructure
  • For NRCan to publish a hydrogen market development roadmap to track progress and outcomes of the deployment of the hydrogen in Canada, in partnership with interested stakeholders
  • For Canada to improve its consistency across departments

This Progress Report presented the results of 6 modelling initiatives, providing a transparent, comprehensive picture of the state of projections of hydrogen’s role in Canada. Ultimately, the results showed fair alignment on the role that low-carbon hydrogen could play in Canada’s efforts to reach net zero, including greater certainty in a potential role in aspects of transportation or heavy industry. The range of possible outcomes between modelling initiatives generally overlap, providing an important update on projections to inform market development even as there remain aspects of hydrogen opportunity that at this stage are uncertain or emerging.

Description of modelling initiatives

Canada’s Energy Future 2023

June 2023

Organization: Canada Energy Regulator (CER)

Canada’s Energy Future 2023 is a part of a series exploring how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term.

The CER is a federal government agency whose mandate includes both the regulation of aspects of energy development under federal jurisdictions, such as interprovincial infrastructure, and the provision of economic statistics and the conduct of economic modelling to inform energy policy making across the country.

Current Measures
Policies announced across Canada prior to March 2023 and for which sufficient detail were available at that time to model their implications.
Canada Net Zero
Canada enacts additional policies that allow it to reach its target of net zero by 2050, but the pace of climate action elsewhere in the world is slower, such that the resulting global temperature rise exceeds the 1.5⁰C threshold. This scenario takes the International Energy Agency’s Announced Pledges scenario as indicative of global climate action through 2050.
Global Net Zero
Both Canada and the world at large enact policies sufficient to reach net zero emissions by 2050, thereby limiting global warming to 1.5⁰C. This scenario takes the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Emissions scenario as indicative of global climate action through 2050.
Low Hydrogen
Relative to Global Net Zero, hydrogen technology costs fall more slowly, hydrogen plays a lesser role in trucking, shipping, and aviation, blending with natural gas is only 5%, and only 2.5 Mt is produced for export.
High Hydrogen
Relative to Global Net Zero, hydrogen technology costs fall more quickly, hydrogen plays a greater role in trucking, shipping, and aviation, blending with NG reaches 20%, and 8 Mt is produced for export.
Exploring Approaches for Canada’s Transition to Net-Zero Emissions

October 2022

Organization: Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)

Exploring Approaches for Canada’s Transition to Net-Zero Emissions is Canada’s long-term strategy submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and offers extensive modelling based on 3 different models. All 3 models are constrained to achieve both Canada’s Paris Agreement target for 2030 of a 40% reduction in emissions and net zero emissions by 2050. This chapter presents the results of the main ‘current assumptions’ scenario from each model.

As Canada’s lead federal department for climate change, ECCC produces economy-wide modelling to estimate the effects of Canada’s climate policies.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)
This is an open-source recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model maintained by the Joint Global Change Research Institute that captures key interactions between worldwide economic, energy, land use, agriculture, water, and climate systems. Energy technologies compete in the model based on factors including their cost, efficiency, climate-effectiveness, and consumer behavior.
ECCC Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)
This model optimizes net zero economic pathways to the end of this century by integrating 4 modules: macroeconomic, energy, climate, and climate damages.
ECCC Multi-sector Multi-regional (MSMR) Model
This is an open-economy recursive-dynamic CGE model of the global economy with 23 commodity-producing sectors and 17 regions, each seeking to maximize its welfare.
Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)
This is an open-source recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model maintained by the Joint Global Change Research Institute that captures key interactions between worldwide economic, energy, land use, agriculture, water, and climate systems. Energy technologies compete in the model based on factors including their cost, efficiency, climate-effectiveness, and consumer behavior.
ECCC Integrated Assessment Model (IAM)
This model optimizes net zero economic pathways to the end of this century by integrating 4 modules: macroeconomic, energy, climate, and climate damages.
ECCC Multi-sector Multi-regional (MSMR) Model
This is an open-economy recursive-dynamic CGE model of the global economy with 23 commodity-producing sectors and 17 regions, each seeking to maximize its welfare.
Modelling Hydrogen’s Potential Across Multiple Sectors of the Canadian Economy

March 2023

Organization: NRCan / ESMIA Consultants (ESMIA)

ESMIA was contracted by NRCan to conduct modelling to help inform this Progress Report, with a focus on questions raised by and based on a timeline to respond to the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development’s audit of the Hydrogen Strategy for Canada.

ESMIA used its North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM) to test hydrogen relative to other energy sources in meeting Canada’s Net-Zero by 2050 goal, using an economic model that covers the entire energy system with detailed representation of equipment and processes for producing, transporting, and consuming all types of energy. 4 of the 6 scenarios tested by ESMIA are presented in this analysis.

ESMIA Consultants is a leading Canadian modelling firm specializing in energy, climate, and other resource and environmental outlooks.


Parameters reflect a neutral approach to the range of values in literature, and assumes no new hydrogen-supporting policies:

  • hydrogen blending allowed up to 13%
  • biomass sequestration as a share of hydrogen production not limited
  • no specific actions (policy or technology) reduce hydrogen capital costs
  • no limits on the growth of the electricity system
  • real price of hydrogen is $2 per kg

Optimistic costs from external literature, and assumption of additional actions to further reduce capital costs:

  • blending allowed up to 20%
  • biomass sequestration as a share of hydrogen production limited to 35% by 2030 and 75% by 2050
  • hydrogen capital costs reduced for NG and electrolytic production
  • hydrogen-consuming technology costs reduced 20%
  • hydrogen subsidized at $1.5 per kg
  • capacity growth of the electricity system is limited to 20% every 5 years
  • real price of hydrogen is $2 per kg

Exploring conditions where certain regions of the country specifically support hydrogen for space heat in buildings. Same assumptions as supportive scenario other than:

  • hydrogen blending with natural gas is allowed up to 20% with no additional costs, and can be retrofit to carry pure hydrogen in Alberta
  • hydrogen capital costs are reduced for NG and electrolytic production
  • biomass sequestration as a share of hydrogen production is not limited
  • there are no limits on the growth of the electricity system
  • the use of heat pumps is limited to 25% of demand for space heating in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba

Testing outcomes related to global market demand and supply under assumptions higher prices paid for Canadian exports. Same assumptions as neutral scenario, other than:

  • no limits on the growth of the electricity system or the use of heat pumps
  • prices for hydrogen are high ($3.50 per kg in 2030 and $5 per kg from 2040)
Canada’s Net Zero Future

February 2021

Organization: Canadian Climate Institute (CCI)

CCI’s Canada’s Net Zero Future examined potential pathways for Canada to reach net zero emissions by 2050. CCI used Navius Research’s gTech recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine 62 scenarios that varied on 19 different factors, including several energy technology costs, strength of climate and competition policy, and the global price of oil. According to this modelling, hydrogen remained a ‘wild card’ out to 2050 due to the range of uncertainty in the size of the contribution it might make to Canada’s net zero transition.

The Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) was formed in 2020 with a 5-year mandate to inform climate policy across Canada.

  • Other major countries lag Canada’s climate action
  • Neither engineered negative emissions technologies nor advanced CCUS become viable
  • Clean electricity costs are high
  • Electric vehicle costs are moderate
  • Other major countries lag Canada’s climate action
  • Engineered negative emissions technologies are not viable, but advanced CCUS is viable
  • Clean electricity costs are moderate
  • Electric vehicle costs are low
  • Hydrogen costs are low with high blending rates into natural gas networks
  • Other major countries lag Canada’s climate action
  • Both engineered negative emissions technologies and advanced CCUS are viable
  • Clean electricity costs are high
  • Electric vehicle costs are moderate
  • Hydrogen costs are low with high blending rates in natural gas
Canada Energy Dashboard

April 2023

Organization: Navius Research

Navius Research’s Canada Energy Dashboard is a project sponsored by NRCan to make energy-economic modelling more readily available to Canadians. It uses its gTech CGE energy-economy model to build up from dozens of end uses and hundreds of technologies to their comprehensive application across Canada’s provinces and territories, as well as their integration with the United States. On the Dashboard, users can select a ‘Legislated’ (current policies) or ‘Net Zero’ policy context in which other variables – energy technology costs, the global oil price, and the availability of emissions offsets – are adjusted, in turn giving rise to different outcomes for electricity use, energy sector emissions, technological composition, and economic effects. These variables produce over 300 potential output levels for hydrogen production.

Navius Research is a Canadian consulting firm providing energy, climate, and economic modelling services across Canada for governments, industry, and non-profits.

Federal and provincial policies legislated in Canada as of January 2023, but not including announced policies for which the implementation is still uncertain.
Net Zero
In addition to currently legislated measures, these scenarios assume that Canada is successful in reducing its emissions 40 to 45% by 2030 and to net zero by 2050 by imposing an economy-wide cap on emissions. Other key assumptions include the use of 30Mt of land use offsets in 2030 and 103Mt of offsets in 2050, as well as the United States also implementing net zero-aligned policies.
Legislated or Net Zero – Mean or High
The Canada Energy Dashboard allows users to toggle policy environment (legislated or net zero) and a variety of other inputs, combinations of which generate a total of 324 potential scenarios. This chapter presents the average and maximum levels of hydrogen consumption and production across all scenarios under each broad policy environment to give a sense of the range.
Canadian Energy Outlook – Pathways Explorer

June 2023

Organization: Trottier Institute

Trottier’s Canadian Energy Outlook offers a comprehensive and detailed modelling examination of how Canada’s energy system might evolve through mid-century on current policy or net zero policy trajectories. The Pathways Explorer is an online visualization tool that, using the ESMIA NATEM model, allows users to see how energy use, investment, and emissions levels change when varying energy production, technology, demand, and policy assumptions. The results include a business as usual scenario, a reference net zero case, and 140 other scenarios.

The Trottier Institute (Institut de l’énergie Trottier) is a research institute based at Polytechnique Montréal that works to build trans-disciplinary understanding of energy issues in Canada across the science, engineering, and policy disciplines.

Business as Usual
Applies all existing and quantifiable policies and measures currently in place, including carbon pricing that reaches $170 per tonne in 2030.
Net Zero
Assumes the same policy environment as BAU (above) but forces national emissions to net zero by 2050 while minimizing total costs.
Minimum/ Mean/ Maximum
These are the lowest, average, and highest values for hydrogen consumption across the Pathways Explorer’s 140 other Net Zero scenarios.

Glossary of terms

Autothermal Reformation – A process that uses oxygen and CO2 or steam in a reaction with methane to form a syngas composed of hydrogen and carbon monoxide
Battery Electric Vehicle
Codes and Standards
Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage
Investment Tax Credit for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage
Clean Energy Ministerial
Clean Fuels Fund
Clean Fuel Regulations
Canadian Gas Association
Canada Growth Fund
Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association
Canadian Hydrogen Installation Code
Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit
Carbon Intensity
Canada Infrastructure Bank
Carbon Dioxide
Canadian Standards Association
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Electric Vehicle and Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Deployment Initiative
Fuel Cell Electric Bus
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Federation of Canadian Municipalities
Final Investment Decision
Fortescue Future Industries
First Nation
Federal, Provincial, Territorial
Global Affairs Canada
Greenhouse Gas
Greater Toronto Airports Authority
International Energy Agency
Independent Electric System Operator
Incentives for Medium and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles
International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy
International Organization for Standardization
Investment Tax Credit
Life Cycle Assessment
Letter of Intent
Memorandum of Understanding
Million tonnes
Million tonnes per annum
Non-Governmental Organization
Natural Resources Canada
Research and Demonstration
Standards Council of Canada
Strengthened Climate Plan (Canada)
Sustainable Development Technology Canada
Standards Development Organization
Simon Fraser University
Steam Methane Reforming – A process where natural gas is reacted at high temperature with water vapour to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide.
Strategic Innovation Fund – Net-Zero Accelerator
Technology Collaboration Program
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (Alberta)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
University of British Columbia
Working group
Zero-Emission Vehicle
Zero Emission Transit Fund
Zero-Emission Trucking Program
Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program

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