Fire regime
More Canadian forest area is expected to burn each year.
Wildland fire is an important natural disturbance in Canadian forests and plays a key role in shaping forest ecosystems. Wildland fire also affects human safety, health and property, and timber supply. Changes in the fire regime resulting from climate change can have significant impacts on Canada’s forests, the forest industry and Canadians. The annual area of burned forest and the number of large (>200 hectares) fires have increased since monitoring began in Canada in 1959, and projections indicate continued increases in both in the future.
Why the fire regime is important
Wildland fire regimes shape the ecosystem and affect forest resource availability and human safety, health and property.
Wildland fire is a significant natural disturbance in Canadian forests. Since 1990, wildland fires have burned an average of 2.3 million hectares (ha) of forest each year. The annual area burned and the number of large fires are primarily driven by weather conditions conducive to fire (see fire weather).
Wildland fires play a large role in shaping landscape diversity and productivity and affect the carbon flux in forest ecosystems. They determine forest resource availability and accessibility, and have an important impact on human safety, health and property. Understanding changes in the fire regime can allow for better management of forest resources and better planning for wildland fire evacuations.
What has changed
Both annual area burned and the number of large fires increased between 1959 and 2010.
The average values for both annual area burned and number of large fires increased during the period 1959–2010 (Figure 1).
Figure 1a – Trends in annual area burned (in hundred thousands of hectares) across Canada between 1959 and 2010.
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Figure 1b – Trends in number of large fires (>200 hectares) across Canada between 1959 and 2010
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Graph data - Figure 1a
| Year | Area burned (hundred thousands of hectares) |
|---|---|
| 1959 | 26.35 |
| 1960 | 57.20 |
| 1961 | 231.01 |
| 1962 | 33.16 |
| 1963 | 15.31 |
| 1964 | 112.14 |
| 1965 | 20.03 |
| 1966 | 48.14 |
| 1967 | 55.77 |
| 1968 | 120.91 |
| 1969 | 139.30 |
| 1970 | 142.33 |
| 1971 | 191.28 |
| 1972 | 68.23 |
| 1973 | 99.91 |
| 1974 | 83.38 |
| 1975 | 79.72 |
| 1976 | 196.87 |
| 1977 | 133.19 |
| 1978 | 25.67 |
| 1979 | 330.58 |
| 1980 | 472.58 |
| 1981 | 618.57 |
| 1982 | 171.11 |
| 1983 | 195.84 |
| 1984 | 69.11 |
| 1985 | 72.67 |
| 1986 | 86.23 |
| 1987 | 101.29 |
| 1988 | 127.34 |
| 1989 | 749.27 |
| 1990 | 85.54 |
| 1991 | 145.59 |
| 1992 | 82.41 |
| 1993 | 189.07 |
| 1994 | 600.36 |
| 1995 | 623.12 |
| 1996 | 173.24 |
| 1997 | 52.45 |
| 1998 | 465.93 |
| 1999 | 163.22 |
| 2000 | 41.97 |
| 2001 | 56.34 |
| 2002 | 304.66 |
| 2003 | 131.52 |
| 2004 | 315.79 |
| 2005 | 181.19 |
| 2006 | 202.19 |
| 2007 | 174.99 |
| 2008 | 174.97 |
| 2009 | 77.66 |
| 2010 | 316.50 |
Graph data - Figure 1b
| Year | Number of large fires |
|---|---|
| 1959 | 156 |
| 1960 | 245 |
| 1961 | 424 |
| 1962 | 115 |
| 1963 | 119 |
| 1964 | 197 |
| 1965 | 97 |
| 1966 | 112 |
| 1967 | 293 |
| 1968 | 170 |
| 1969 | 228 |
| 1970 | 251 |
| 1971 | 312 |
| 1972 | 221 |
| 1973 | 223 |
| 1974 | 158 |
| 1975 | 175 |
| 1976 | 370 |
| 1977 | 230 |
| 1978 | 79 |
| 1979 | 254 |
| 1980 | 436 |
| 1981 | 413 |
| 1982 | 264 |
| 1983 | 310 |
| 1984 | 204 |
| 1985 | 190 |
| 1986 | 160 |
| 1987 | 270 |
| 1988 | 284 |
| 1989 | 765 |
| 1990 | 230 |
| 1991 | 289 |
| 1992 | 147 |
| 1993 | 198 |
| 1994 | 385 |
| 1995 | 435 |
| 1996 | 418 |
| 1997 | 123 |
| 1998 | 501 |
| 1999 | 270 |
| 2000 | 153 |
| 2001 | 163 |
| 2002 | 344 |
| 2003 | 385 |
| 2004 | 429 |
| 2005 | 321 |
| 2006 | 393 |
| 2007 | 252 |
| 2008 | 246 |
| 2009 | 256 |
| 2010 | 382 |
The outlook
Both annual area burned and number of large fires are expected to increase.
Projected warmer and drier conditions are expected to increase fire season length, annual area burned and the number of large fires. Most areas are expected to experience at least a 2-fold increase in annual area burned and 1.5-fold increase in the number of large fires by the end of the 21st century (Figures 2 and 3). Although highly variable across homogeneous fire regime zones, this increase in annual area burned would mainly result from a rise in fire activity during the months of June, July and August, especially for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods (Figure 4). These changes would have significant socio-economic and ecological impacts.
Figure 2 – Reference period (1981–2010) and projected annual area burned for the short- (2011–2040), medium- (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)Footnote * 2.6 (rapid emissions reductions) and, for the long-term (2071–2100), under RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Map units represent the Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones in Canada
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Figure 3 – Reference period (1981–2010) and projected number of large (>200 ha) fires for the short- (2011–2040), medium- (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)Footnote* 2.6 (rapid emissions reductions) and, for the long-term (2071–2100), under RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases). Map units represent the Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones in Canada
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Figure 4 – Historical (1961-1990) and projected (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) fire seasonality as expressed by the yearly area burned (in million ha) in Canada under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)Footnote * 2.6 (rapid emissions reductions) and 8.5 (continued emissions reductions)
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Graph data - Figure 4
| Historical | Projected | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Month | RCP 2.6 | RCP | |
| 1981-2010 | April | 0.02 | - | - |
| May | 0.32 | - | - | |
| June | 0.88 | - | - | |
| July | 1.16 | - | - | |
| August | 0.62 | - | - | |
| September | 0.22 | - | - | |
| October | 0.01 | - | - | |
| 2011-2040 | April | - | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| May | - | 0.46 | 0.42 | |
| June | - | 1.30 | 1.25 | |
| July | - | 2.59 | 2.23 | |
| August | - | 1.13 | 1.26 | |
| September | - | 0.23 | 0.24 | |
| October | - | 0.02 | 0.02 | |
| 2041-2070 | April | - | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| May | - | 0.54 | 0.59 | |
| June | - | 1.53 | 2.68 | |
| July | - | 2.82 | 4.12 | |
| August | - | 1.30 | 2.73 | |
| September | - | 0.22 | 0.33 | |
| October | - | 0.02 | 0.04 | |
| 2071-2100 | April | - | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| May | - | 0.55 | 1.34 | |
| June | - | 1.48 | 4.37 | |
| July | - | 3.09 | 4.78 | |
| August | - | 1.67 | 4.19 | |
| September | - | 0.23 | 1.07 | |
| October | - | 0.02 | 0.08 | |
How the fire regime and its indicators are defined
The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem.
For this project, the fire regime includes the following indicators:
- Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by fires greater than 200 hectares (ha). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale, at least for the 1959–1999 period (see methods). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications.
- The number of large fires is expressed as the annual number of fires greater than 200 ha that occur per units of 100,000 ha.
- Fire seasonality is expressed as the yearly area burned for each homogeneous fire regime zone. It shows when fires actually occur. By contrast, fire weather indicators refer to weather conditions that are conducive to fire.
Trends in annual area burned (AAB) by fires >200 ha, and the number of large fires (>200 ha) per HFR zone was analyzed for the 1959–2010 time period using point version data from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Caution is required when interpreting results, as small gaps in regional data availability and the possibility of unrecorded fires in low-density areas may have affected them.
Sources and references for the fire regime and its indicators
- Amiro, B.D., Cantin, A., et al. 2009. Future emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39, 383–395.
- Balshi M.S., McGuire A.D., et al. 2008. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology 15, 578–600.
- Bergeron, Y., Cyr, D., et al. 2011. Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: Collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 1127–1139.
- Bond-Lamberty, B., Peckham, S.D., et al. 2007. Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance. Nature 450(7166), 89–92.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2012. An alternative fire regime zonation for Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 1052–1064.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2013. Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada. Ecological Applications 23, 904–923.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.
- de Groot, W. J., Flannigan, M. D., et al. 2013. Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 35–44.
- Flannigan, M.D., Logan, K.A., et al. 2005. Future area burned in Canada. Climatic Change 72, 1–16.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
- Johnson, E.A. 1992. Fire and vegetation dynamics: Studies from the North American boreal forest. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- Kasischke, E.S. 2000. Boreal ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. In Kasischke, E.S., and Stocks, B.J. (eds.), Fire, climate change, and carbon cycling in the boreal forest, 19–30. New York, NY: Springer.
- Kelly, R., Chipman, M. L., et al. 2013. Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, 13055–13060.
- Payette, S. 1992. Fire as a controlling process in the North American boreal forest. In Shugart, H.H., Leemans, R., and Bonan, G.B. (eds.), A systems analysis of the global boreal forest, 144–169. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- Rowe, J.S., and Scotter, G.W. 1973. Fire in the boreal forest. Quaternary Research 3, 444–464.
- Stocks, B.J., Mason, J.A., et al. 2002. Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 107(D1), FFR-5.
Canadian Forest Service key contacts
Yan Boulanger, Research Scientist, Forest Ecology, Laurentian Forestry Centre
Sylvie Gauthier, Research Scientist, Forest Succession, Laurentian Forestry Centre
Adaptation tools and resources
Fire Smart Canada – helps people understand the potential of wildland fire affecting homes and communities. It includes a risk reduction program for forestry companies.
Forest Change Toolkit – a list of tools and resources for climate change adaptation
- Bergeron, Y., Cyr, D., et al. 2011. Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: Collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 1127–1139.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2012. An alternative fire regime zonation for Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21, 1052–1064.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2013. Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada. Ecological Applications 23, 904–923.
- Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.
- de Groot, W.J., Flannigan, M.D., et al. 2013. Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes. Forest Ecology and Management 294, 35–44.
- Flannigan, M., Stocks, B., et al. 2009. Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Global Change Biology 15, 549–560.
- Gauthier, S., Vaillancourt, M.A., et al (eds.). 2009. Ecosystem management in the boreal forest. Québec, Qc: Presses de l’Université du Québec.
- Mansuy, N., Boulanger, Y., et al. 2014. Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate. Landscape Ecology 29, 1157–1170.
- Terrier, A., Girardin, M.P., et al. 2015. Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires. Ecological Applications 23, 21–35.
- Wotton, B.M., Nock, C.A., et al. 2010. Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada. International Journal of Wildland Fire 19, 253–271.
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